USD has Seasonal Strength Against the Russian Ruble
The fallout from the last Federal Reserve meeting is that the FOMC has taken a hawkish tilt. The dot plot betrayed more FOMC members seeing sooner interest rate hikes coming from the Fed. The immediate reaction was USD strength as Fed’s Chair Powell also recognised that inflation pressures may be more significant than they originally thought.
This fundamental shift is likely to play out over the coming weeks and months.
Over the last 14 years, USDRUB has gained in value eleven times between June 18 and August 12. The largest gain was in 2015 with a 20.58% profit. The largest loss was -1.65% in 2012 and the average return over the last 14 years has been 3.67%.
Is this now a perfect time to see strength in the USDRUB?
Major Trade Risks: Any stepping back from the Fed’s latest hawkish shift is a key risk to this trade outlook.
Giles Coghlan
