Market Overview – Morning Express
– U.S. benchmarks pare overnight losses, turn positive shortly after European open.
– S&P hit major three-star support and the NQ made a U-turn in front of the 200-dma. (highlighted in S&P/NQ section below)
– Crude Oil backed off session highs after melting higher, and Treasuries stabilize. Crude is tightly knit to the inflation narrative.
– Yield of German 10-year briefly turned above 0%, someone buying that dip.
– U.S. Dollar Index hits 50-dma and loses ground as German 10-year yield traded above 0%. Coincidence?
– China President Xi has been making the rounds at Davos virtual stage. Calling out central banks for policy tightening and the challenges it presents to financial stability. This comes after China cut rates and injected yuan over the weekend.
– Thank you for the advice: keep your friends close, and your enemies closer.
– Keep an eye on Russian activity at Ukrainian border.
– Earnings from UNH and PG beat top and bottom. BAC and MS beat EPS but miss top-line.
E-mini S&P (March) / NQ (March)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4560, down 83.50
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 15,206, down 389.75
– We have reintroduced a slight Bullish Bias but remain cautious. We find U.S. benchmarks at levels we are willing to weather near-term volatility and see good value ahead of next week’s Fed policy meeting.
– S&P settled right at gap from December 20th, brings major three-star support at 4558.50-4560. After last night’s test to major three-star support at 4520.25-4530.50 we find the tape constructive while out above the former.
– NQ took out January 10th low and tested rare major four-star support aligning multiple indicators with the round 15,000 mark and the 200-dma at 14,975-15,025.
– Price action has rebounded strongly and must hold out above major three-star support aligning with January 10th low at 15,100-15,152
– Our momentum indicators are rising, and price action is out above, the bulls have regained the driver’s while holding above … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
Crude Oil (March)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 84.83, up 1.53
– The trend is strong, and we remain Bullish in Bias. If you have not capitalized, then congratulations. If you have been slowly capitalizing, continue to do so. Please consider the speed of the rally and know that swings are likely to be violent as the February contract falls off the board today and tomorrow.
– Explosion on the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline from Iraq-Turkey ushered prices higher yesterday. It carries up to 450,000 bpd and has resumed limited operations.
– Houthi drone strike on UAE and aggression at the Ukrainian border are also keeping a geopolitical premium.
– Price action cleared rare major four-star resistance at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
Gold (February) / Silver (March)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1812.4, down 4.1
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 23.492, 0.574
– Is Silver in the driver’s seat? Closed above the 50-day for the first time since November 22nd. We have always said, when Silver is above or below the 50-dma, it likes to stay above or below for an extended period. Last stint was above for a month, and it has been below for two months. Prior to trading above in October, it was below for four months. Need weekly close to confirm above.
– Gold still faces a ceiling of resistance at 1829-1835 that it must close above on a daily and weekly basis.
– Similarly, Silver has had a ceiling of resistance at 23.48-23.50 that it must close above on a daily and weekly basis. It did not yesterday.
– Bulls are seemingly in the driver’s seat for Gold if it can hold above … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
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