S&P500 Summer Slide Ahead?
S&P500 Summer Slide Ahead?
There is a longstanding Wall Street saying which says to ‘Sell in May, and go away’. This is because summer has a reputation for being a weak time for US stocks. So, does that mean a summer slide is ahead for US stocks this year?
Let’s take a look at the seasonal pattern for the S&P500 between August 1 and October 1. Over the last 15 years, the S&P500 has fallen around 50% of the time for an average fall of 1.80%. Although it has been 50/50 whether the S&P500 falls through this time, the extent of the falls has been notable. In 2011 the S&P500 fell nearly 15%, in 2022 it had a 10.69% fall, and in 2015 an 8.30% fall. Will the S&P500 see similar falls again this year between Aug 1 and Oct 1?
Major Trade Risks: Previous seasonal patterns do not necessarily repeat themselves each year.
HYCM clients can access the Seasonax product in order to analyse over 25,000 currency pairs, indices, commodities, as well as individual stocks. Please contact your account manager for a free trial. Certain products & services mentioned herein may or may not be available to all clients depending on which HYCM Capital Markets Group entity their trading account(s) adheres to.
About: HYCM is the global brand name of HYCM Capital Markets (UK) Limited, HYCM (Europe) Ltd, HYCM Capital Markets (DIFC) Ltd and HYCM Limited, all individual entities under HYCM Capital Markets Group, a global corporation operating in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.
High-Risk Investment Warning: Contracts for Difference (‘CFDs’) are complex financial products that are traded on margin. Trading CFDs carries a high degree of risk. It is possible to lose all your capital. These products may not be suitable for everyone and you should ensure that you understand the risks involved. Seek independent expert advice if necessary and speculate only with funds that you can afford to lose. Please think carefully whether such trading suits you, taking into consideration all the relevant circumstances as well as your personal resources. We do not recommend clients posting their entire account balance to meet margin requirements. Clients can minimise their level of exposure by requesting a change in leverage limit. For more information please refer to HYCM’s Risk Disclosure.
20230803
