Market Overview – Morning Express
E-mini S&P (March) / NQ (March)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4512.50, up 36.75
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 14,734.50, up 174.75
Fundamentals: The S&P and NQ are tapping five-day highs, whereas the Dow is pinging the highest level since January 18th and the Russell since January 20th. This comes ahead of tomorrow’s critical CPI read. As anticipation for the data point mounts, is it becoming overblown, its own Goldilocks story, if you will? Through the start of the week, strong technical groundwork was built at major three-star support and earnings have certainly been a tailwind. Also, news that Congress will kick the funding ‘can’ down the road and some sense of progress at the Ukrainian board helped support the tape overnight. As we move through today, comments from Fed Governor Bowman at 9:30 am CT and Cleveland Fed President Mester at 11:00 am CT will be pivotal. The U.S. Treasury will auction $37 billion in 10-year Notes at noon CT. This comes after closing at 1.965% yesterday, the highest since July 31, 2019. All things considered, the table is set for tomorrow’s CPI, and hawkish expectations are discounted.
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Technicals: Price action is firm and trekking higher. Although this is a great sight to see, we cannot ignore the strong overhead resistance and the damage into the February 2nd gap, after Facebook’s earnings report. This of course brings major three-star resistance, ironically aligning with levels we already had in the vicinity, at 4577.25-4580.75 in the S&P and 15,114-15,152. There is now also some unfinished business left underneath the tape from yesterday’s close. Ahead of the bell, the S&P is testing into the thick of that sharp, post-settlement, high volume, down-bar from February 2nd. For the NQ, we have major three-star resistance in front of the aforementioned at 14,995-15,033, aligning with the 200-day moving average. Still, our momentum indicators will bring a point of balance, and we see the bulls in the driver’s seat while price action holds out above … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
Crude Oil (March)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 91.32, down 0.99
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 89.36, down 1.96
Fundamentals: Crude Oil is again battling off early session lows. Underpinning the tape is the private API survey signaling a draw in inventories across the board and data showing OPEC+ missed its production target by 700,000 bpd in January. Overall, it seems there has been some profit taking on the heels of last week’s late push on fears of the Texas fears and geopolitics ahead of the weekend, but the pullback has been steadfastly defended. API printed -2.025 mb Crude, -1,138 mb Gasoline, -2.203 mb Distillates, and a massive 2.502 mb draw at Cushing. This was a very bullish report from API, relative to expectations for today’s official report at +0.369 mb Crude, +1.623 mb Gasoline, and -1.739 mb Distillates. Remember, API did set a bar and Cushing will be watched very close.
Technicals: A quick new low at 7:00 am CT was rejected, and the rebound has lifted Crude Oil back above our momentum indicator at 89.45. Ultimately, our momentum indicator has been signaling exhaustion since the European open Monday morning. Is this a consolidation ahead of EIA, or is the start of another melt higher? There is strong first key resistance at 90.01-90.30 and major three-star resistance above at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
Gold (April) / Silver (March)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1827.9, up 6.1
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 23.20, up 0.124
Fundamentals: Remind yourself, the time to get bullish Gold and Silver is not as they test major three-star resistance just ahead of a critical CPI read. It was time to get bullish for a swing trade as they tested and rejected support after Nonfarm Payroll. It will be time to get extremely bullish if they begin a bullish breakout above roughly $1890 and $26. Right now, traders want to make sure to lock in something after this nice rebound and prepare to be nimble if the breakout begins. As we have discussed in our S&P/NQ section, anticipation is mounting for tomorrow’s CPI, and this could bring a Goldilocks scenario for the metals as well. We will discuss this further in today’s Midday Market Minute, so stay tuned.
Check out our Chief Market Strategist, Phillip Streible’s Metals Edge video.
Technicals: Gold and Silver are testing major three-star resistance at 1829-1832 and 23.45, this is not when you chase the tape, this is when you capitalize on Gold and Silver that you already own. Our momentum indicators will bring a point of balance on the session, but as the rise and if Gold and Silver slip below, they will being to signal near-term exhaustion, at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
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