Mish’s Daily: The Transportation Sector Has a Story to Tell
Written by Michele ‘Mish’ Schneider
Over the weekend I wrote about small caps and retail or the Granny and Gramps of the Economic Modern Family.
The third “inside sector” of the US economy is transportation.
IYT is also a member of the Family and as such, a reliable way to assess the health of the economy and the stock market.
With the market experiencing a dose of reality on interest rates, we still believe that current rates are not the worst news for the market, depending on where you look.
Regardless of supply chain issues, for now, IYT is holding up well.
Furthermore, as a great gauge to measure overall demand, what IYT is telling us is that demand is solid and honestly, a reason to doubt any recession calls by economists.
It’s why we love the Family-they keep us on the right side of the market.
Could IYT fall? Of course. Inflation would be a big reason for a fall.
To date though, the new round of inflation we expect has yet to materialize.
So, we look here for clues on the market’s next moves this month of February, which many say should be negative for stocks.
Looking at the Daily chart of IYT, we can determine a lot from the price, but also from our ACP plug-ins, featured on our website as well as on Stockcharts.com.
The price is above the 50-DMA so the bullish phase is intact.
Plus, Monday is turning out to be an inside day to Friday’s range.
We will watch for a move above Friday’s high as a great sign for this, the Family and the market.
The calendar range tells us that IYT is above the highs which is generally very bullish.
The Leadership has a story to tell in that it is well underperforming the SPY.
With growth stocks still in rocket mode, we really want to see IYT at least catch up to the SPY for the best bullish scenario.
Momentum or Real Motion tells us that there is a slight diversion between momentum and price. IYT’s momentum sits on the 50-DMA, while price is a good way above that 50-DMA. Overall, this sector is what is keeping us from thinking a much bigger correction is in store, UNLESS, IYT breaks down under the 50-DMA or around 257.
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Mish in the Media
Benzinga Morning Pre Market Mish sits with the team to discuss the recent job report and how a healthy economy is not the worst thing. It just means a reset of how investors invest 02-02-24
CNA Asia First Mish’s debut talking the Fed, inflation, big tech earnings and what investors should look out for 01-31-24
Money FM 89.3 Singapore Mish on breakfast bites talking earnings and interest rates-plus her made up ETF 01-31-24
Business First AM Mish talks briefly about oil and how we will know when geopolitics are heating up 01-30-24
Kitco News An Article with Neils Christensen on the direction for gold 01-30-24
Business First AM Mish covers how important small caps are and why she likes 2 different industrial metals 01-30-24
Yahoo Finance 33 Charts for 2024 -Article
Stockpick Jillian Glickman and Mish discuss economic outlook and current investment picks plus forecasts on inflation. 01-22-24
Dale Pinkert FXTrader Mish and Dale discuss the equities and futures marklets and how she and MarketGauge are positioned right now 01-25-24
Yahoo Finance Mish makes up a new ETF (not real) called VAIN-but really discusses the basket of stocks that are worth watching 01-24-24
Against All Odds Jason Perz Podcast-The mental game of trading, commodities, futures, equities, technical analysis, macro-we cover it all 01-16-24
StockchartsTV How Calendar Ranges can Predict Market Direction-Mish and Geoff cover how this indicator tells you who and what to believe, when to act and what to trade 01-16-24
February 8 Daily Briefing The Money Show
February 21-23 The Money Show in Las Vegas
February 26 CNA Asia First TV and Radio
February 29 Yahoo Finance
February 29 Your Daily Five Stockcharts
Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets
S&P 500 (SPY) 490 support
Russell 2000 (IWM) 195 pivotal, 190 support to hold
Dow (DIA) 385 pivotal
Nasdaq (QQQ) 425 support to hold
Regional banks (KRE) 45 support
Semiconductors (SMH) 195.90 the all time high which it cot close to but could not clear-if turns down, 184 is support
Transportation (IYT) Inside day. Watch 259-266 range to break up or down
Biotechnology (IBB) 135 pivotal -like this sector but has more to prove
Retail (XRT) 70 pivotal with 67-68 key support