Mish’s Daily: Are Key Commodities Decoupling From Equities?

Mish’s Daily: Are Key Commodities Decoupling From Equities?
Written by Michele ‘Mish’ Schneider

After a long weekend, the market action on January 16th held some surprises.
The Bullish Trends or gainers were the dollar and here is the surprise for some-many different commodities.
The Bearish Trends or losers were foreign currencies, long bonds and (not shown on the chart) US equity indexes.
To be fair, there were many commodities that did not perform well.
Natural gas after a spectacular run fell hard, as did gold, wheat, soybean oil and aluminum.
Two commodities though, the ones we track the most for signs of any reignition of inflation, did ok to great.
Why do we focus on silver to gold ratio and sugar futures?
As stated over the weekend, silver futures have been experiencing narrower trading ranges.
“With higher lows since October, the recent support at $22.50 an ounce, if holds, could mean this week is the week we start to see this metal shine.”
Today, silver futures had an inside day and outperformed gold which fell about $19.00 to $2,032.
Silver held $23.00 and the underlying support level.
All things considered; gold also held near-term support at $2029.
Yet we are yet to see silver outperform gold, so we watch.
Sugar cleared 22 cents a pound closing at 22.52.
Coffee and cocoa rallied as well. So, it was a big day for the softs.
Back to the notion that that today could be the start of the decoupling.
We need to see more. But, we are paying attention.
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Mish in the Media
CMC Markets Part 3 Gold outlook 2024; the year of the heavy metals? 01-03-24
CMC Markets Part 2 2024 Outlook on the major level to watch in the S&P 500 to assess next big trend. 01-03-24
CMC Markets Part 1 Mish gives you a thorough outlook on which areas to invest in for 2024 in just four and half minutes 01-12-24
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CMC Markets Mish covers oil, gold, natural gas, silver and sugar and teaches you how to use charts to determine short term trading strategies, 01-08-24
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Charting Forward with Stockcharts and Dave Keller-Mish sits down with 2 other market experts to help you prepare for 2024 with predictions, picks, and technical analysis. December 28, 2023
Coming Up:
January 17 Stockchartson January Calendar Ranges
January 22 Your Daily Five Stockcharts
January 24 Yahoo Finance
January 25 Live Coaching
Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets
ETF Summary
S&P 500 (SPY) 480 all-time highs 460 underlying support
Russell 2000 (IWM) 195 pivotal 180 major support
Dow (DIA) Needs to hold 370
Nasdaq (QQQ) 408 now the immediate pivotal number with 405 support
Regional banks (KRE) Failed 50 but not by too much at this point
Semiconductors (SMH) The winner again.
Transportation (IYT) Needs to hold 250
Biotechnology (IBB) 135 pivotal support
Retail (XRT) To maintain a bullish stance this should hold 65 and get back over 70.00
20240117
