Market Overview – Morning Express
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* PMIs from China highlighted the year-end on Friday night, Manufacturing contracted more than expected at 47.0 v 48.0. The private Caixin survey was released last night at 49.0 v 48.8.
* Today, German Unemployment and U.K. Manufacturing PMI was better than expected and German CPI deflated m/m more than expected at -0.8% v -0.3% and was slower y/y +8.6% v +9.1%.
* Calendar from the U.S. is quiet to start the week, but we look to ISM Manufacturing for December, JOLTs for November, and the latest FOMC Minutes, all tomorrow.
* The U.S. Dollar Index surges to a three-week high, see below, while Treasuries also rebound.
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E-mini S&P (March) / NQ (March)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 3861, down 10.75 on Friday and 8.75 on the week
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 11,022.25, down 10.50 on Friday and 53.00 on the week
Resistance: 3881.50-3882.75**, 3895.50-3900.50**, 3908.50-3912.50***, 3927.75-3931.75***
Support: 3839.25-3843.50***, 3821.50-3829***, 3804.50-3808.50***, 3795.50**, 3764.25-3786****
Resistance: 11,181-11,208***, 11,254-11,276**, 11,334-11,395***
Support: 10,952-10,971**, 10,902**, 10,855-10,875***, 10,746-10,775***, 10,500-10,595****
Crude Oil (February)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 80.26, up 1.86 on Friday and 0.70 on the week
Resistance: 80.26**, 80.78-81.18***, 82.75-83.27***
Support: 78.68-78.78**, 78.28-78.40**, 77.73**, 76.79-77.03***
Gold (February) / Silver (March)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1826.2, up 0.2 on Friday and 22.0 on the week
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 24.04, down 0.21 on Friday and up 0.12 on the week
If you bought Gold on December 23rd and held through January 11th, you have made money in 14 of the last 15 years, averaging about $31.
If you bought Silver on December 20th, and held through February 18th, you have made money in 14 of the last 15 years, averaging about $1.50.
With that said, Gold was +3.8% in December and 7.3% in November, its best two-month run since April-May 2021. Rare major four-star resistance has centered on 1848.8, the 50% retracement back to the March 2022 high (from the November 22 low). We are not calling for a pullback as deep as the 1760 area, but its potential cannot be ignored, given what the U.S. Dollar Index is doing. However, on a positive note, Treasuries are also surging. At the least, if you have been long Gold and Silver, think about monetizing/capitalizing on something.
Resistance: 1841.9-1848.5****, 1857.2**, 1902****
Support: 1831.3-1833.8**, 1819.8-1826.2***, 1804.2-1810.7***
Resistance: 24.53***, 25.11-25.40***, 25.70-25.89**, 26.50***
Support: 24.04-24.09***, 23.62-23.84***, 23.20-23.32**, 23.05**, 22.73-22.88***
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