Haymaker Friday Edition
Haymaker Friday Edition
“All governments suffer a recurring problem: Power attracts pathological personalities. It is not that power corrupts but that it is magnetic to the corruptible.” –Dune author, Frank Herbert.
Hello, Readers and Subscribers:
Yesterday, as our Founding Members know, I co-hosted a webinar with my brilliant friend, Grant Williams, in which we touched on timely macroeconomic topics spanning from global liquidity and interest rates, to a “maturity tsunami” and Mid-Cap stock opportunities. Below is a sampling of the charts we referenced during that webinar along with some high-level notes you might find intriguing… or troubling.
If you’re interested in attending our monthly webinars, all of which conclude with some Haymaker Q&A time, consider upgrading to Founding Member status today. (Note: We think yesterday’s webinar is important enough to send out snippets of the recording to all subscribers over the next couple of weeks.)
For now, enjoy the chart sampling.
David “The Haymaker” Hay
Evergreen Compatibility Survey
David Rosenberg’s chart above captures one point we’ve been persistently articulating over the past year or so: Namely, that while economic conditions are nominally positive by some measures, they are decidedly less than rosy on the consumer level across broad swaths of the populace. Credit card debt, for instance, is forcing millions into acute financial distress, with as much as 10% of said debt falling into the category of seriously delinquent. With rates on revolving balances now averaging 22.75%, this situation is likely to continue worsening. An optimist might argue that it’s only affecting a small percentage of the country, but these sorts of systemic vulnerabilities can lead to cascading problems throughout an economy.
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This material has been distributed solely for informational and educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or to participate in any trading strategy. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy, adequacy, or completeness cannot be guaranteed, and David Hay makes no representation as to its accuracy, adequacy, or completeness.
The information herein is based on David Hay’s beliefs, as well as certain assumptions regarding future events based on information available to David Hay on a formal and informal basis as of the date of this publication. The material may include projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets or expectations. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary discussed herein will be realized or that an investment strategy will be successful. Actual experience may not reflect all of these opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary.
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David Hay serves on the Investment Committee in his capacity as Co-Chief Investment Officer of Evergreen Gavekal (“Evergreen”), registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. The registration of Evergreen in no way implies a certain level of skill or expertise or that the SEC has endorsed the firm or David Hay. Investment decisions for Evergreen clients are made by the Evergreen Investment Committee. Please note that while David Hay co-manages the investment program on behalf of Evergreen clients, this publication is not affiliated with Evergreen and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Investment Committee. The information herein reflects the personal views of David Hay as a seasoned investor in the financial markets and any recommendations noted may be materially different than the investment strategies that Evergreen manages on behalf of, or recommends to, its clients.
Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this material, will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Due to rapidly changing market conditions and the complexity of investment decisions, supplemental information and other sources may be required to make informed investment decisions based on your individual investment objectives and suitability specifications. All expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any security or investment strategy discussed in this presentation.
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