Grain Analysis for September 28th, 2021
This grain analysis article is presented by Oliver Sloup of Blueline Futures.
| Corn (December) Fundamental Analysis: Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 517,539 metric tons, within the range of expectations. The Monday afternoon crop progress report showed that 74% of the crop is mature and 18% of the crop is harvested. All eyes are on this Thursday’s quarterly stocks report. The average analyst estimate is 1.155 billion bushels. This would be a notch below the 1.187 we saw in the USDA report in the beginning of the month. Looking further out, inflation and higher input costs are something we are monitoring closely. Technical Analysis: We have been in the sell rallies camp for a while now, but last week’s ability to mark higher lows coupled with yesterday’s ability to mark higher highs (since the September 10th low) has moved our bias into Neutral territory. The fact that we are approaching the end of the month, quarter, and a USDA report has also played a role in shifting our near-term bias. Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral Resistance: 551 ½-555 ½**** Pivot: 533-537 ½ Support: 512 ¾-514 ¼***, 497 ½-500***, 477 ½-480 ¾**** Soybeans (November) Fundamental Analysis: Yesterday morning, the USDA announced a flash sale of 334,000 metric tons to China for the 2021/2022 marketing year. Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 440,742 metric tons, within the range of expectations. The Monday afternoon crop progress report showed that 75% of the crop is dropping leaves and 16% of the crop is harvested. Attention shifts to Thursday’s quarterly stocks report. The average analyst estimate is .174 billion bushels, just a hair below the .175 we saw in the USDA report in the beginning of the month. Technical Analysis: November soybean futures have been relatively quiet for the past few sessions as prices continue to linger near the upper end of our pivot pocket, 1286. If the Bulls can chew through and close above the top end of our pivot pocket, we could see an extension towards 1300 ½-1306 ¾. A breakout above this pocket would shift our bias to outright Neutral. A continued failure against the pivot pocket could spark additional long liquidation. The low end of the recent range remains intact, 1259 ¾-1262 ¾.Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral Resistance: 1300 ½-1306 ¾***, 1325 ¾-1333****, 1350-1352*** Pivot: 1278 ¼-1286 Support: 1259 ¾-1262 ¾***, 1240 ½**** Wheat (December) Fundamental Analysis: Yesterday’s weekly export inspections report came in at 286,087 metric tons, below the low end of expectations. Yesterday’s crop progress report showed 34% of the winter wheat crop is planted and 9% is emerged. The average analyst estimate for quarterly stocks comes in at 1.852 billion bushels. We have mentioned the USD several times over the last few weeks, it is threatening to breakout which may add a headwind to the market. Technical Analysis: As with corn, the wheat market was able to mark higher lows and higher rights recently, shirting our bias into Neutral territory. The fact that we are approaching the end of the month, quarter, and a USDA report has also played a role in shifting our near-term bias. 718 ½-723 ½ continues to be our pivot pocket. The Bulls have the near-term advantage so long as they can defend this pocket. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish. Resistance: 733 ¼**, 744 ¾-750**** Pivot: 718 ½-723 ½ Support: 698¾-703****, 675-680 ½****, 650-652 ½** |
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