Blue Line – Morning Express August 16th, 2021
E-mini S&P (September) / NQ (Sept)
S&P, last week’s close: Settled 4454.50, up 14.00 on Friday and 33.00 on the week
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 15,125.75, up 47.25 on Friday and 30.25 on the week
Fundamentals: There is a lot to unpack and look forward to at the onset of this new week. The S&P and Dow grinded higher amid low volume last week, and Friday marked the fourth straight record close for each. However, politically infused Michigan Consumer Sentiment data riddled with Covid and inflation fears Friday came in at the worst level since December 2011, halting the further gains. Overnight, price action softened a bit after July economic data from China that included Industrial Production, Fixed Asset Investment, and Retail Sales all missed expectations. From the U.S., NY Empire State Manufacturing missed this morning. The U.S. Dollar and Treasury yields both retreated to finish out the week. The string of poor data sets the stage for Retail Sales and a speech from Fed Chair Powell tomorrow, before Minutes from the Fed’s July meeting are released Wednesday.
Technicals: Price action across U.S. benchmarks is peeling back slightly from record levels ahead of the opening bell. Both the S&P and NQ are trading below our momentum indicators and these as well as higher settlement prices from Friday create a bit of a hurdle to start the week. For the S&P these align at first key resistance at 4455. For the NQ our momentum indicator is our Pivot and point of balance at 15,100 whereas settlement was a touch below major three-star resistance at 15,134-15,150. We will say this, the NQ did a terrific job holding supports described here through last week and this set the stage for a very friendly Friday, one that did disappoint a bit. Considering such, the first hour will be pivotal; do the S&P and NQ hold first key support levels at … Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.
Crude Oil (September)
Last week’s close: Settled at 68.44, down 0.65 on Friday and up 0.16 on the week
Fundamentals: Crude Oil is down sharply from last week’s rebound, slipping as much as 3%. Weighing on the tape are the same components discussed in the S&P/NQ section; much slower than expected economic data from China last night, mounting Covid fears as the U.S. 7-day moving average hit 130,000, and the poor Michigan Consumer data Friday. Given this trio, it has amplified pessimism from the IEA’s monthly report from Thursday where they cut their demand outlook. Although OPEC discussed such fears, they left their demand outlook stable. NY Empire State Manufacturing this morning also missed and this has added to some of the selling. The bulls now must await a wave of supportive news or a technical response that staves off the selling.
Technicals: Price action is down sharply, but trading into our first area of major three-star support that aligns with the low close last week. Will the bulls respond? If it breaks below here, there is a high probability that price action would have to test the $65 area once again. Our momentum indicator is slopping down and comes in at … Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.
Gold (December) / Silver (Sept)
Gold, last week’s close: Settled at 1778.2, up 26.4 on Friday and 15.1 on the week
Silver, last week’s close: Settled at 23.779, up 0.663 on Friday and down 0.547 on the week
Fundamentals: Gold and Silver spiked on Friday after Michigan Consumer data fell to the lowest level since December 2011. The surprise whiff was a breath of fresh air for the precious metals space that was battling heavy losses from last Sunday night. Gold used the data miss to actually finish the week positive by nearly 1%. However, Silver’s underperformance continued, and it still sits about 2% below last Sunday’s open. The tape was softening a bit this morning as the U.S. Dollar firmed, however, a miss on NY Empire State Manufacturing brought another fresh wave of buying across the precious metals. With each in the vicinity of the scene of the crime from last Sunday, today will be a jockeying session ahead of tomorrow’s Retail Sales and Fed Chair Powell.
Technicals: Price action in Gold is testing major three-star resistance at 1785 and now chewing into the damage of the Nonfarm Payroll selling. Our rising momentum indicator comes in at 1777 this morning as our Pivot and point of balance. To the downside, a close back below… Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.
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