Daily Technical Analysis is provided by Jason Sen of Day Trade Ideas, who has been day trading since the late 1980’s. Jason has been a contributor of Traders Summit since the beginning. He primarily focuses on providing technical analysis of the financial markets, including stock chart patterns, Forex and Metals setups, and other useful technical analysis.
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Gold: Short term & longer term trading opportunities with targets.
Gold Spot is quite a confusing mess & here is why, although I think I can find an opportunity this week. From mid May to mid June we held a 1 month sideways channel from around 1930 up to 1970/80.
At the beginning of the third week of June we broke down to form a new sideways channel from around 1935/40 down to 1900/1892.
On the weekly chart we still have that potential triple top pattern, with peaks in August 2020, March 2022 & May 2023 ( I pointed this out in May of course). We have sunk steadily since the third peak.
Therefore we do have 2 month bear trend, but you would have had to be incredibly confident to have held a short all of this time, when we have spent 80% of the last 2 months trading sideways. On Friday we recovery all of Wednesday & Thursday’s $33 loss. That 2 day loss had wiped out the Friday to Tuesday gain – so we are literally up for 1 to 3 days, then down for 1 to 3 days in the sideways trend
Just to make matters more confusing we have a declining wedge pattern on the daily chart – which is most often a short term bullish pattern. However we had a failed breakout above the upper trend line on Friday – which adds to the confusion because I am sure bulls saw this as a buy signal.
What can I deduce from this confusing picture? On the 1 hour chart we could have formed a bullish inverse head & shoulders pattern. The black horizontal neck is meeting the green 500 hour moving average (which held the rally on Friday).
A convincing break above the 500 HMA & Friday’s high at 1932/1935 should be a buy signal for this week. It should also confirm a breakout from the declining wedge pattern on the daily chart. I would suggest a long with stop below 1926.
Targets: 1960/65 & perhaps as far as 1975/80.
Failure to hold above 1927 means we remain stuck in a sideways channel & if so I will be lost for an idea for a few days.
Silver recovered from Friday to Wednesday & then wiped out most of the gains in a big drop on Thursday before recovering most of the losses on Friday. My best guess is that this is a bear flag pattern but this means we have a sell signal on a break below 2250 this week – which is in contrast to the bullish idea I have in Gold above.
Two bear flags on the silver charts?
Maybe a break above last week’s high at 2330 will be a buy signal for this week targeting 2360/65. WTI Crude August I thought had completed a breakout of the 1 month triangle pattern on Thursday with a break above the upper trend line at 7100/7150. But prices collapsed before a recovery & by Friday I had given up on the pattern &n thought I had misread the signal.
Only on Friday did the pattern play out, which was frustrating, with a low for the day in the 7150/7100 area before we shot higher to the 100 day moving average at 7380. Assuming I am now right about the pattern, we have a potential target of 7700/7750.
We could try a long at 7250/7200 with stop below 7150.
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Jason Sen, Director