Mish’s Daily: Update on Sugar Futures

Mish’s Daily: Update on Sugar Futures
Written by Michele ‘Mish’ Schneider

The one caveat to a sustained equities rally, especially after relatively dovish statements by Powell, is the return of inflation.
This could happen because of:
- 1. Supply chain and geopolitics
- 2. Government debt and interest on debt
- 3. Government spending
- 4. Weather
- 5. A softening of monetary policy that adds liquidity.
But we will know about inflation by watching:
- 1. Silver-and if it can begin to outperform gold
- 2. Oil, if spikes over $80 a barrel
- 3. Sugar, if even with increased production begins to move up back over 23 cents a pound
- 4. The dollar fails 103 and selling pressure returns. Rumor has it through Russia that BRICS is working to create an independent payment system based on digital currencies and blockchain
For today, let’s focus on sugar.
Sugar prices rally during El Nino weather patterns.
With heavy rains in Brazil and drought in India, these factors negatively impact sugar crop production.
El Nino in Thailand has created issues with millers reporting the lowest yield from crushed cane in the least 13 years.
India, the second-largest sugar producer in the world, reported that output fell and has maintained their restrictions on sugar exports.
In past Daily’s I have written about why sugar is a reliable barometer for inflation.
“I love to watch sugar as a barometer for food prices (it’s in practically every processed food product) and as a bellwether for social unrest and inflation.
Folks will fight over sugar when there are shortages….
As more and more reports claim inflation is over, the sweet white stuff is worth watching.” January 23, 2024
Looking at the futures chart, a move over 22.50 cents would be the start of a potential double bottom going back from December.
It would also clear a key moving average.
On our Real Motion momentum indicator, sugar had a mean reversion. Now with gold and silver rallying, the dollar falling and Powell into the do-nothing mode on rates, sugar could just be the key.
For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools, and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.


Get your copy of “Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth”
Grow Your Wealth Today and Plant Your Money Tree!

“I grew my money tree and so can you!”- Mish Schneider
Mish in the Media
CMC Markets Where to be bullish and where to be negative using short term and longer-term biases 03-06-24
Business First AM Money Pouring into Gold and Silver 03-05-24
The Technical Take Stockpick.app Mish debuts with a look at SPY Gold Silver and Warning Signs 03-04-24
Traders Summit with Blake Morrow Stock Pick and Market Predictions 03-04-24
Real Vision 3 Trades Holden and Mish talk Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and Coinbase with actionable information. 03-01-24
Business First AM All About Coinbase Why Mish still loves this stock 02-29-24
Your Daily Five StockchartsTV Want to know why leaders tend to lead and what the next leaders might be? 8 ETFs in 15 minutes 02-29-24
Yahoo Finance After the PCE report, Mish explains why inflation is on hold but could return-and what to look for-plus, reshoring and the vanity trade 02-29-24
Coming Up:
March 7 Wolf Financial X Spaces
March 7 Singapore Breakfast Bites Radio
March 8 Schwab International Women’s Day
March 12 Your Daily Five Stockcharts
March 15 Jim Pupluva Financial Sense
Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets, andnew to us-stockpick.app
ETF Summary
S&P 500 (SPY) 510 pivotal-as in below could see more correction
Russell 2000 (IWM) Unless clears back over 277.70, the reversal top could bring this back to 198 quickly
Dow (DIA) 385 support 400 resistance
Nasdaq (QQQ) After the potential reversal top, this had an inside day so watch
Regional banks (KRE) 45-50 range
Semiconductors (SMH) Another new high for our wonder woman!
Transportation (IYT Looks better especially is this continues to a new ATH
Biotechnology (IBB) 140-142 resistance 135 support
Retail (XRT) Granny had a rough day-this makes us a bit cautious. 73 support
iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) 77 big number to hold (still)
20240307
