Market Overview – Morning Express
- (1) The April U.S. Retail Sales report was out at 7:30 am CT and was mixed with March being revised worse.
- * Core Retail Sales in line at +0.4% m/m, up from -0.4%.
- * Headline missed at +0.4% m/m versus +0.8% expected, up from -0.6%, and 1.60% y/y versus +4.20%, up from +2.94%.
- * Retail Control +0.7% versus +0.3% and Ex Gas/Autos +0.6% versus +0.2%.
- (2) U.S. Industrial Production for April beat at +0.5% versus -0.1%, along with Manufacturing Production at +1.0% versus +0.1%.
- (3) A deluge of economic data from China last night missed across the board, highlighted by Industrial Production at +5.6% versus +10.9% expected. Although this was the highest since September, it was relative to a base comparison of -2.9% last April, the only contraction since the onset of the pandemic.
- * Fixed Asset Investment and Retail Sales whiffed at +4.7% vs +5.5% expected and +18.4% vs 21.0%, respectively.
- * This was the best Retail Sales since March 2021 at +28% though that was a pandemic comparison, and last April was -11.1%.
- * On a positive note, the Unemployment Rate fell to 5.2%, the lowest since December 2021 and does signal public reopening momentum.
- (4) Debt ceiling talks between President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy are set to resume today. Although the window is closing, there have been several small steps forward noted.
- (5) Fed speak across the calendar:
- * Cleveland Fed President Mester at 7:15 am CT and Atlanta Fed President Bostic at 8:00 am CT, both are 2024 voters. Yesterday, Bostic said would keep rates steady if a meeting were today and does not forecast rate cuts until 2024.
- * Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Barr will testify before Congress at 9:00 am CT
- * NY Fed President Williams speaks at 11:15 am CT, a permanent voting seat.
- * Dallas Fed President Logan is due to speak at 2:15 pm CT. Though the 2023 voter is seen a centrist, she has made hawkish comments of late.
- (5) Fed speak across the calendar:
- (6) Home Depot missed top and bottom estimates and lowered its outlook. The stock is down nearly 3% and sets a tone ahead of Target tomorrow and Walmart Thursday.
E-mini S&P (June) / NQ (June)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4150.00, up 12.00
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 13,468.00, up 71.75
E-mini S&P futures are creating a sideways consolidation pennant, whereas E-mini NQ futures set a fresh closing high yesterday. Although the divergence is nothing new its persistence is a bit surprising. The lines in the sand for the E-mini S&P, major three-star resistances and major three-star supports, are drawn and highlighted in the levels below. As for the E-mini NQ, we must see price action hold above first and second support in order to keep a buoyant trend. However, it is the pivot and point of balance that will be most crucial as today’s session unfolds, continued action above or below this adjusted level at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
Crude Oil (June)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 71.11, up 1.07
The IEA Monthly Report, released this morning, spoke of a divergence between fears of a recession driving prices lower and an impending supply crunch. The agency forecasts demand to outstrip supply by 2 mbpd in the second half of the year, and raised its Oil demand outlook by 200,000 bpd, citing China’s recovery. Last night’s, slate of economic data from China disappointed across the board, but we do believe much of this negativity is becoming discounted within the market. For instance, price action in Crude Oil futures continues to respond to major three-star support at 69.84-70.03, despite fresh lows in Copper. However, first key resistance highlighted below has contained rally attempts. As the session unfolds, our Pivot and point of balance will be critical at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
Gold (June) / Silver (July)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2022.7, up 2.9
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 24.291, up 0.137
Gold and Silver are languishing after a failed rebound attempt yesterday and a ugly slate of economic data from China last night. Although the U.S. Dollar Index is sideways early in the session, the USDCNH hit a fresh two-month high, weighing on the metals complex. Retail Sales this morning helped underpin a pop back into the middle of the session’s range for Gold and Silver, but it will be critical for each to maintain price action above our Pivot and point of balance or face added waves of selling, these levels come in at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
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