Mish’s Daily: Risk On, Risk Off, or Risk Who Knows?
Mish’s Daily: Risk On, Risk Off, or Risk Who Knows?
Written by Michele ‘Mish’ Schneider
Now that the FOMC is behind us,
And the result was exactly what we expected-stay the course,
And most sectors of the market found the obvious as a relief,
And the metals rallied, right after I wrote that they would in the last Daily,
And Jerome Powell said that most likely the next move won’t be a rate hike,
And the Fed announced they will slow the decline of QT,
And the idea of 2% inflation is on a back burner,
And now we revisit Operation Twist,
What are the junk bonds telling us?
Junk bonds remain rangebound.
But clearly, the bounce post FOMC helped market confidence.
However, regarding Chop in May rather than Sell in May (see Real Vision interview), HYG has more work to do as does the market.
The chart shows that HYG still must contend with moving above the pivotal area of 76.50 and the January 6-month calendar range low.
While HYG is holding the 200-day moving average, real motion shows that momentum remains below and in a bearish divergence.
Yet, according to our Leadership indicator, HYG slightly outperforms the benchmark.
We are happy with the green today.
Nonetheless, chop and caution in most equities are still the themes as we begin May.
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Mish in the Media
Real Vision The Daily Briefing Maggie Lake and Mish discuss inflation, stagflation, May seasonal, stock picks and much more 04-30-24
Business First AM A quick market recap and why Mish like Novo-Nordisk 05-01-24
CMC Markets Walk through futures trading in metals, energy, dollar pairs and indices 05-01-24
Stockpick.app Why transportation is a huge red flag if cannot hold these levels 04-30-24
BFM 89.9 Malaysia THE MAGNIFICENT 7 ARE NOW THE FANTASTIC FOUR Mish tells us how much of a divergence are we seeing in terms of performance and why these results still matter in spite of the Fed keeping pat on rates. 04-26-24
The Phoenix Show China Mish talks to The Phoenix Show in China about the upcoming Fed meeting 04-26-24
FOREX ANALYTIC Mish sees opportunities in commodities amid concerns over stagflation 04-25-24
Business First AM Mish covers regional banks, the small caps, value stocks, retail and bitcoin-with levels for you to act upon 04-23-24
Singapore Breakfast Bites Where are rates going? Mish talks about the higher for longer and why the FED could pivot on that 04-19-24
Neil Cavuto Coast to Coast Fox All About Netflix-Mish predicted that the stock peaked BEFORE the earnings report 04-18-24
Schwab Network Where the consumer will go next to spend money with Nicole Petallides 04-17-24
Kitco News with Jeremy Szafron A clear explanation on why gold is up, inflation, Fed’s next moves and where things are going from here 04-13-24
CNBC Asia Inflation is Coming Which bodes well for industrial and precious metals.04-10-24
Making Money With Charles Payne Mish talks about small and mid-cap stocks and why sticking to companies with strong balance sheets and earnings growth makes for best investments 04-02-24
CNBC Worldwide Exchange Tesla is one aspect of a much larger megatrend in EVs. Mish covers the advantages/disadvantages of the company and the space 04-02-24
Coming Up:
May 3 Benzinga Pre Market Prep
May 10 Financial Sense with Jim Pupluva
Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets, andnew to us-stockpick.app
ETF Summary
S&P 500 (SPY) Still in a caution phase-500 now support 511 the 50-DMA resistance
Russell 2000 (IWM) Still in a caution phase-190 support 200-202 resistance
Dow (DIA) Still in a caution phase 380 support 388 resistance
Nasdaq (QQQ) Still in a caution phase 430 pivotal
Regional banks (KRE) 45-50 range
Semiconductors (SMH) Still in a caution phase 204 Support 220 resistance
Transportation (IYT) 63 support 67 resistance
*Biotechnology (IBB) The winner today as it cleared back over the 50-WMA-now must hold
Retail (XRT) 71.50 support 75 resistance
iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) 76.50 pivotal
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