Mish’s Daily: Market Has Stress Fractures But No Clear Breaks
Written by Michele ‘Mish’ Schneider
- 1. Yields and mortgage rates
- 2. War
- 3. Inflation and rising commodity prices
- 4. Bank stocks falling
- 5. Risk Gauges 2 out of 6 now risk-off
To name a few, why then is the S&P 500 so strong?
Here are a few reasons:
- 1. Fed members suggest rate hike pauses.
- 2. Hope that the war lateralizes rather than escalates.
- 3. Economy stats mixed with retail sales and labor strong.
- 4. Sidelined cash in money markets could move into equities.
- 5. Seasonally, Q4 and pre-election years are historically strong.
Besides the SPY chart, we are also watching the price in small caps.
I feel like I have written the same themes repeatedly. It’s almost like a mantra-
Watch price and timeframe in the economic modern family
Watch risk gauges
And here we are still stuck in time as time seemingly stands still amidst the increasingly faster speed and plethora of news.
The SPY monthly chart is not bearish.
It could turn out that way, but presently, SPY sits atop the blue line or 23 month moving average.
We have 2 weeks left in October, so we are watching 418 level carefully.
We are also watching 450 as resistance carefully. After all, a trading range is not only possible, but also plausible.
Small caps look more vulnerable.
Hence, we look to them to tell us what’s next.
A declining slope on the 23-month MA
A narrowing between the 23 and 80-month MAs
An unimpressive bounce off the 80-month MA (green line).
IWM is still above the 80-month MA
His wife, Granny Retail XRT is potentially making triple bottoms off of the October 2022 lows. Tune out the noise and follow the charts.
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Mish in the Media
Business First AM Garmin 10-18-23
Business First AM 10-17-23
FACE ForexAnalytix Pre market 10-12-23
CMC Markets Daytrading Commodities 10-11-23
Final Bar Sub Host for Dave Keller 10-09-23
Making Money with Charles Payne Fox 10-05-23
Yahoo Finance 10-05-23
Real Vision 10-04-23
Kitco on gold 10-04-23
BNN Bloomberg Opening Bell 10-04-23
Schwab with Nicole Petalides 10-02-23
October 19 Live Coaching
October 20 Your Daily Five
October 20 Crypto Town Hall X Spaces
October 23 BNN Bloomberg
October 27 Live in Studio with Charles Payne Fox
October 27 Live in Studio Yahoo Finance
October 27 Recorded in Studio with IBD
October 29-31 The Money Show
Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets
S&P 500 (SPY) 440 resistance 429 support
Russell 2000 (IWM) 177 resistance 170 KEY support
Dow (DIA) 344 resistance 332 support
Nasdaq (QQQ) 368 resistance 363 support
Regional banks (KRE) 39.80 -42.00 range
Semiconductors (SMH) 150 resistance 140 support
Transportation (IYT) 237 resistance 225 support
Biotechnology (IBB) 120-125 range
Retail (XRT) 57 key support if can climb over 62, better