Elliott Wave Analysis for 2022
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EURUSD came lower in 2021 so price action remains trapped in a big sideways price action that belongs to a bearish trend that is in play since 2008. Ideally, it’s a triangle that can cause more weakness in second part of 2022. Ideally the multi-year low will be printed around parity.
Aussie came out of a big downward channel which means that pair is most-likely trading in a higher degree correction. But corrections are in three waves, so more upside can be seen in 2022, but after wave B pullback which is underway now and it ma retrace close to 0.6600 area before bulls shows up for wave C.
Gold is bullish, with no five waves up in play yet, so there is no reason to fight a trend, especially not when you have slow and choppy price action around the highs, which is normally a corrective move. We see that as wave IV) that suggests more upside into wave V) next year.
SP500 is coming sharply higher, out of an upward channel meaning that market is accellearting, making an extended move which can be sign of “mania cycle”. This may not continue forever, so we are aware of a fourth wave set-back. 5k is a big level.
SP vs GOLD
Ranged price action since 2015 may limit the upside next year based on past two swing highs, even if just temporary for a retracement. Expected weakness means that gold can be more attractive next year.
GOLD vs COPPER
GOLDvsCOPPER is known as indicator of economic health. After good 2021 the economic activity may slow down. Well, five wave drop into a multiyear support zone suggest that economic activity may slow down. In such case gold may do better while stocks could are expected to slow down.
COMMODITY INDEX (CRB Reuters)
Sharp recovery on commodities shows real rising prices and inflation which is expected to resume after set-back.
Impulsive reversal from a new low and above the red trendline suggest more upside after retracement. Nice important swing zone on a pullback can be at 50-60 dollar per barrel.
BTCUSD is in a massive rise since March 2020 lows that we see it as wave (III) that toped in April 2021, so current price action can represents irregular formation for wave (IV) that can be a flat or possibly even a triangle. First support within a triangle is at 35k, followed by 25k if flat. These are important support levels from where we would expect a new strong continuation higher.
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