Mish’s Daily: January – NASDAQ Has the Best Odds of Gains BUT
Mish’s Daily: January – NASDAQ Has the Best Odds of Gains BUT
Written by Michele ‘Mish’ Schneider
“January provides us with a wealth of information that gets our year off to a good start financially and emotionally.
The data is specifically chosen to begin in 2009 because that is the bottom of the most significant bear market prior to the 2022 bear market, and 2009 represents the beginning of an era of distinctly different execution of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.
There’s clearly one index that stands out.
As you can see in the chart, QQQ is the best performer based on the percentage of times its January is positive. However, a 60%-win rate over the last 15 years isn’t very impressive, and the other 3 stock indexes have actually been down more often than up over the 15-year period.
So, one clear conclusion is that if you want to be long an index, QQQ has the best odds in January.” Geoff Bysshe President MarketGauge.com.
However, we are all about the Russell’s.
Granddad Russell 2000 has been a stronger performer in January in the last 5 years.
We have started January 2024 thus far, weaker, but the real test will be 2-fold.
First, IWM holds 180. Secondly, how IWM performs versus the 6-month high and low set in January.
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Charting Forward with Stockcharts and Dave Keller-Mish sits down with 2 other market experts to help you prepare for 2024 with predictions, picks, and technical analysis. December 28, 2023
TheStreet.com with J.D. Durkin–Mish gives you a quick snippet of the overall macro prediction for 2024 December 27, 2023
Coming Up:
January 3rd Real Vision IP Group Special Presentation
January 5th Daily Briefing Real Vision
January 22 Your Daily Five Stockcharts
January 24 Yahoo Finance
Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets
ETF Summary
S&P 500 (SPY) 480 all-time highs 460 underlying support
Russell 2000 (IWM) 195 near-term support 180 major support
Dow (DIA) Needs to hold 370
Nasdaq (QQQ) 390 major support with 408 resistance
Regional banks (KRE) 47 support 55 resistance
Semiconductors (SMH) 160 major support and 170 now resistance to clear
Transportation (IYT) Needs to hold 250
Biotechnology (IBB) 130 pivotal support
Retail (XRT) Tested 70.00 level which bulls need to see hold
20240104
