Mish’s Daily: FOMC-Dovish or Hawkish or a Bit of Both?
Mish’s Daily: FOMC-Dovish or Hawkish or a Bit of Both?
Written by Michele ‘Mish’ Schneider
The FED kept rates unchanged and essentially suggested 3 rate cuts on the table for 2024.
Both the commodities and equities markets took that as a sigh of relief.
SPY made new all-time highs and gold and gold miners flew.
For 2025, the FED sees the jobs rate as holding steady at 4.1%.
They see inflation dropping to 2.2% as measured by the PCE numbers.
And they see the Fed Funds rate dropping significantly by 2026 and in the longer run.
However, the FED is committed to a 2% inflation rate.
And the most interesting part-Powell said that there could be seasonal effects in inflation data.
Sounds like many words to say the one word- “transitory”.
Powell is watching the labor market and will become more dovish if the unemployment rate rises.
He feels confident that the policy rate has peaked.
But also wants us to understand that “higher for longer” is not off the table.
Some analysts took the minutes as a more hawkish FED, while the initial market reaction interpreted the meeting as dovish.
Powell did a great job pandering to both doves and hawks.
Our focus remains the same as far as the next direction.
Junk Bonds-they rallied (HYG) and remain risk-on.
Long Bonds (TLT)-Still at the tipping point, holding 92.00 support yet not very clear on the next moves. Could they spoil the fun? Or drive everything up even higher?
And then there are the other indicators for inflation.
Gold Miners GDX-They ran up nearly 5% and cleared a 50-week moving average for the first time since December. If GDX clears the January high, whoa.
Silver-also ran and is priced well over the January 6-month calendar range high.
Sugar-still not 1979 exciting but can be if clears over 22 cents a pound and keeps going.
Are we readying for a “no landing” where everything runs up and inflation remains in control.
Or like our overlay chart, did the FED just relay they want lower rates to pay off the ginormous debt in favor of worrying about the hyperinflation potential?
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Mish in the Media
Coming soon CNA Asia First and The Morning Run BFM 89.9 Malaysia Business radio
CMC Markets Ahead of FOMC-here’s a tutorial on how to trade the dollar/yen, gold, oil, silver and natural gas 03-20-24
New addition: Schwab with Nicole Petallides –Mish covers her predictions and why solar should be watched along with commodities and long bonds 03-15-24
Real Vision Daily Briefing Mish goes through all the factors to watch for the stocks and commodities next big moves 03-18-24
Business First AM Mish covers why she is cautious ahead of the FOMC and why the beat-up solar sector is starting to look interesting 03-18-24
Stockpick.app Mish schools viewers-clear and concise guide to the signs we are keeping our eyes on this week and why 03-19-24
Financial Sense Jim Pupluva Mish and Jim talk about the signs of inflation and recession-both are still on the table 03-15-24
Money Show with Mike Larson Listen as Mish’s predictions all come true from February in Las Vegas 03-14-24
Business First AM Identifying Warning Signs and why Alibaba 03-13-24
StockchartsTV Your Daily Five 5 Top Stock Picks + 2 With Great Potential-Mish keeps on the theme of leaders continue to lead 03-12-24
Benzinga Pre Market Prep Market thoughts and why Mish likes certain key instruments that could be the next big winners 03-08-24
Synergy Traders–How to Identify the Next Magnificent Leaders-A webinar-want to know more why outperformers outperform and how to profit on that? This is a webinar 03-06-24
Real Vision 3 Trades Holden and Mish talk Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and Coinbase with actionable information. 03-01-24
Coming Up:
March 19 CNA Singapore Asia First
March 20 Malaysia Financial Radio
Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets, andnew to us-stockpick.app
ETF Summary
S&P 500 (SPY) 510 pivotal
Russell 2000 (IWM) 202 if holds good sign
Dow (DIA) 385 support 400 resistance
Nasdaq (QQQ) 428 the 50-DMA support
Regional banks (KRE) 45-50 range
Semiconductors (SMH) 214 support 224 resistance to clear
Transportation (IYT) 68 area support
Biotechnology (IBB) 140-142 resistance 135 support
Retail (XRT) 73 support 77 resistance
iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) 77 big number to hold. Over 78 risk ON
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