Mish’s Daily: Economic Modern Family’s Engine Idles While Growth Goes Fast and Furious
Written by Michele ‘Mish’ Schneider
Let’s get right to it.
The charts and our tools are telling.
First, I look at moving averages and phases.
Second, I look at Real Motion and momentum to see if there is a divergence to price.
Then, I check out our Leadership indicator which tells us how an instrument is performing against a benchmark.
I look at weekly and monthly timeframes as well as the daily charts.
And now that it is relevant, I look at the calendar range. (See video we did for Stockcharts.)
Naturally, I have a few other considerations, but for now, we can go with these.
The Russell 2000 or Granddad IWM
Moving Averages on the Daily, Bullish.
Momentum indicator shows no divergence as momo sits on the moving averages as does price.
Leadership is weak, well underperforming the benchmark. Sustainable?
Weekly charts show price on major support between 183-188.
The monthly chart shows a 2-year business cycle expansion (above the 23-month MA) with resistance at December 2023 highs.
The calendar range shows price sitting on the January lows or the very pivotal 190. Either an incredible low risk buy, or fair warning, especially considering this:
IWM’s struggle to keep up with growth.
This is the Daily chart of Granny Retail XRT.
The similarity between XRT and IWM is clear.
Moving Averages on the Daily, Bullish.
Real Motion shows no divergence as momentum sits on the moving averages as does price.
Leadership is weak, well underperforming the benchmark.
Weekly charts show price on major support between 64-68.
The monthly chart has price above the 23-month MA for the first time since 2021, while still far from the December 2023 highs.
The calendar range shows price sitting on the January lows or the very pivotal 68.00.
Both Gramps and Granny are critical components to the market and economy. Both reflect the rightful hesitancy for predicting the Fed’s next move on rates.
Both are well underperforming growth stocks yet sit on major support.
I hope this gives you a guide to this week. It sure does it for me as I am watching carefully for the all clear in the overall market now that QQQs and Semiconductors have gone fast and furious.
Speaking of Sister Semiconductors is part of the Family, as are Biotechnology, Regional Banks, Transportation and Bitcoin. All have similar patterns to Gramps IWM and Granny XRT which tells us the whole Family has the engine idling and will either put themselves in gear or run out of gas.
For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools, and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.
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Mish in the Media
CMC Markets Are major commodities losing momentum? A look at oil, gold, dollar, the SPY and NatGas 01-17-24
Against All Odds Jason Perz Podcast-The mental game of trading, commodities, futures, equities, technical analysis, macro-we cover it all 01-16-24
StockchartsTV How Calendar Ranges can Predict Market Direction-Mish and Geoff cover how this indicator tells you who and what to believe, when to act and what to trade 01-16-24
CMC Markets Part 3 Gold outlook 2024; the year of the heavy metals? 01-03-24
CMC Markets Part 2 2024 Outlook on the major level to watch in the S&P 500 to assess next big trend. 01-03-24
CMC Markets Part 1 Mish gives you a thorough outlook on which areas to invest in for 2024 in just four and half minutes 01-12-24
CMC Markets Mish continues with the plan for trading on CPI today. Oil, NatGas, Gold and Silver all have very clear levels and momentum 01-11-24
CMC Markets Mish continues with her analysis on gold, oil and gas, only this time adds the dollar/yen currency pair and her outlook on the dollar longer term 01-10-24
Biz First AM Mish covers the January reset and why she still likes COTY, TJ Maxx and the vanity trades 01-09-23
CMC Markets Mish covers oil, gold, natural gas, silver and sugar and teaches you how to use charts to determine short term trading strategies, 01-08-24
Real Vision Daily Briefing Mish and Maggie discussinflation (given the wage component in the payroll report) and Bitcoin (given the looming deadline for ETF news), SPY – market outlook. Why small caps are important, Emerging markets – VNM Greece, Watching China 01-05-24
January 22 Your Daily Five Stockcharts
January 22 Schwab Network
January 24 Yahoo Finance
January 25 Live Coaching
January 25 CNBC Asia
February 5 Money Show Life with Chuck Jaffe
Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets
S&P 500 (SPY) New all-time high making 480 the new 460
Russell 2000 (IWM) 195 resistance 188-190 support
Dow (DIA) New all-time high here too-375 now support
Nasdaq (QQQ) And ATH here as well-408-409 support
Regional banks (KRE) Back over 50 which needs to hold
Semiconductors (SMH) Wings-180 now support
Transportation (IYT) 254 support with 262 resistance
Biotechnology (IBB) 135 pivotal
Retail (XRT) Held support at 65 but still needs to get back over 70.00