Market Overview – Morning Express
– Do not miss our Top Three Things to Watch this Week, every Sunday
– NQ takes out December low this morning and hits lowest since October 25th.
– Probability Federal Reserve hikes rates in March now 79.6%.
– Probability of two hikes by May now 29.9% (chart above)
– Nonfarm Payrolls, jobs whiff and Participation Rate lingers as Unemployment Rate falls to 3.9%.
– Unemployment Rate range in 2019 was 3.5% to 4.0%.
– Wages surge by 0.6% MoM versus +0.4% expected 4.7% YoY versus 4.2%. This is a sign of sticky inflation.
– Russia and U.S. talk on Ukraine tensions.
– U.S. CPI data on Wednesday, highly anticipated.
– Bank earnings Friday; JPM, C, WFC
E-mini S&P (March) / NQ (March)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4667.75, down 19.75 on Friday and 90.75 on the week
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 15,581.00, down 178.00 on Friday and 739.75 on the week
– NQ kicks off the year with its worst week since February 2021 on a % basis and largest point decline since February 2020.
– Trend line support in NQ going back to June 2020 comes in right at today’s early low of 15,363. (chart above)
– S&P was buoyed by major three-star support at 4661.75-4664.25 through end of week but has broken below.
– Price action was also anchored to large volume at 4683, must close back above here to open the door to neutralize selling in near-term (chart above).
– Now looking at major three-star support at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
Crude Oil (February)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 78.90, down 0.56 on Friday and up 3.69 on the week
– Risk-assets broadly under pressure, but Crude weathering well
– Freezing temperatures in the U.S. disrupted production and movement, has supported prices
– Export issues from Kazakhstan and Libya have begun to recede.
– Keep an eye on U.S.- Russia talks
– We said last week to watch a few rounds as next intermediate upside target achieved at 80.14.
– Potentially looking for a buy opportunity at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
Gold (February) / Silver (March)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1797.4, up 8.2 on Friday and down 31.2 on the week
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 22.409, up 0.219 on Friday and down 0.943 on the week
– U.S. Dollar is strengthening this morning on rising rates and Fed probabilities as well as a safe haven on risk-off tone.
– U.S. Dollar is directly hitting Gold and Silver.
– When rates rise it encourages currency flows. Keep an eye on German 10-year yield nearing 0% for the first time since May 2019. Regaining positive could bring a tailwind of money flow to the Euro and thus support Gold again as a safe haven. (chart above)
– Silver a nice volume low on Friday’s jobs data, sticking its head briefly below $22. We highlighted rare major four-star support going back to Brexit high at 21.00-21.55.
– Rare major four-star support in Gold at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
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