Market Overview – Morning Express
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– U.S. benchmarks point higher to start the year, along with Crude Oil, Ags, and the U.S. Dollar.
– Treasuries and precious metals slip.
– Tesla shares surge by +7% premarket after company crushed estimates, delivering 308,600 vehicles.
– Europe is higher while Asia is mixed on Evergrande fallout.
– Week ahead: ISM Manufacturing and OPEC decision tomorrow, ADP Payrolls and FOMC Minutes Wednesday, ISM Non-Manufacturing Thursday, Eurozone CPI and U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Friday.
– OPEC began meeting today and said estimate of oversupply is 25% less in Q1. Also, less oversupply in Q2. Seems to have weighed on the tape, opening the door to a faster pace of adding production when virus uncertainties subside.
– OPEC expected to stay course, add 400,000 bpd to begin February.
– Headlines of record virus cases pose market risk. Fauci said hospitalizations a better guide than case counts.
E-mini S&P (March) / NQ (March)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4758.50, down 13.75 on Friday and up 42.75 on the week
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 16,320.75, down 109.50 on Friday and up 21.75 on the week
– We remain upbeat this market but overall cautious. Value seen near major three-star supports in the S&P at 4740.50-4744.75 and 4713.25-4717.75 with upside being limited to 4850 in the near-term.
– Weakness late Friday worked towards value area in the S&P but gapped higher on the open last night, unfinished business at settlement of 4758.
– The NQ tested major three-star support perfectly on Friday at 16,280-16,310 with a low of 16,312. (Chart above)
– NQ also gapped higher Sunday night and left unfinished business at 16,320 settlement.
– Slight lower lows and slight lower highs is creating an elongated bull-flag pattern, what matters is trapping positioning within the market profile, shorts at lower levels and under-positioned bulls.
– Continued action above our momentum indicators will leave bulls in driver’s seat on the session, for the S&P at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
Crude Oil (February)
Yesterday’s close: Settled 75.21, down 1.78 on Friday and up 1.42 on the week
– Selling came in after OPEC JMMC said market 25% less oversupplied than initial estimates
– Price action stalled in front of Friday’s 10:00 am CT spike to 76.55
– We did Neutralize our more Bullish Bias after price action achieved our intermediate-term upside target perfectly at 77.44-77.81 and warned of a potential slip.
– Price action decisively below our momentum indicator at 75.75
– As well as Friday’s settlement which is our Pivot and point of balance at 75.21.
– The bulls remain in the driver’s seat across while holding the breakout above major three-star support at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
Gold (February) / Silver (March)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1828.6, up 14.5 on Friday and 16.9 on the week
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 23.352, up 0.292 on Friday and up 0.412 on the week
– Bonds getting hammered, down a point and a half and dragging precious metals down significantly from big resistance levels.
– U.S. 10-year yield at 1.58% is the highest since the Friday Omicron fallout after Thanksgiving.
– We have maintained a more cautious outlook until Gold could breakout above rare major four-star resistance at 1829-1835.
– Gold is facing a revised major three-star support, aligning the .382 retracement back to the December 15th low and an uptrend line created from the same point, both aligning at 1800-1802. (Chart above)
– Silver is retesting last week’s low, aligning to create major three-star support at 22.56-22.69.
– Break below is not good night for Silver, our next major three-star support comes in at 22.20-22.45, aligning retracements and volume pocket. (Chart above)
– Rare major four-star support in Gold comes in at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
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