Market Overview – Morning Express
Market Overview – Morning Express
E-mini S&P (June) / NQ (June)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5104.00, down 63.50
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 17,876.25, down 303.00
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures finished sharply lower for the second day in a row as both geopolitics and rising rates act as major headwinds to investors’ risk appetite. We are viewing this pullback as healthy and timely with price action in both testing into the aftermath of NVDA’s February 21st earnings report, which was a pivotal catalyst in the market’s next leg higher. While we do not view the driving narratives (geopolitics and rates) to be stale, we do believe a reprieve in prices is in order. Major three-star resistance in the E-mini S&P comes in at 5127-5131.75, and this is a modest first target upon an attempted rebound, with 5147.25-5153.75 marking a 50% back into the week’s range. To the downside, a failure to hold first key support at 5094 would erode this thesis and encourage another wave of selling. As for the E-mini NQ, the February 21st settlement comes in at 17,767 and stands as a line in the sand that has so far withstood an overnight test, but a break below here would also encourage added selling.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 5120-5123**, 5127-5131.75***, 5147.25-5153.75***, 5162.75-5167.25***, 5182-5185.50**, 5207.75-5213***
Pivot: 5104-5112.25
Support: 5094**, 5081.25**, 5069.50-5075***, 5044-5055****, 5026-5027.25**, 5018**, 4983.50-4994.25****
NQ (June)
Resistance: 17,938**, 18,005-18,072****, 18,131-18,167***, 18,226-18,254***, 18,326-18,343***
Pivot: 17,881
Support: 17,841-17,867**, 17,767-17,792****
Crude Oil (May)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 85.41, down 0.25
Crude Oil futures have traded in a quiet range, going back through last week, outside of an early Friday morning geopolitical spike. A slate of economic data from China last night printed better Q1 GDP results at 5.3% versus 4.8%, but Industrial Production and Retail Sales whiffed. However, U.S. Retail Sales yesterday came in much stronger than expected, leading to a revision higher in the Atlanta Fed’s GDP forecast from 2.4% to 2.8%. It is important to note that Crude Oil has reacted favorably to surprisingly resilient and strong U.S. economic data, especially that which highlights the consumer.
Waves of weakness over the last week have helped define a floor at $84 and just above, while the gap settlement from April 1st sits just below at 83.71. This establishes a line in the sand in which the bulls can become more comfortable leaning against. However, a break below could quickly open the floodgates.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 85.72-85.86**, 86.09-86.29**, 86.81**, 87.34-87.67***, 88.37-88.64***
Pivot: 85.32-85.35
Support: 84.69***, 84.04-84.33***, 83.71***, 83.12-83.25***
Gold (June) / Silver (May)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2383.0, up 8.9
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 28.717, up 0.387
Gold futures traded above $2400 and Silver above $29 early in the session but did see a wave of profit taking through the thick of European hours, but are attempting to stabilize ahead of the U.S. bell. The construction off Friday’s sharp reversal is fairly remarkable, and another favorable close today would help to neutralize the negative sentiment produced by that reversal. Gold is the leader this morning and has responded to major three-star support at 2378.2-2384.7. While holding out above here is a positive, extending gains above 2404.3-2408.5 may be needed to fulfill those shoes
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 2399.2**, 2404.3-2408.5***, 2411.3-2412.9***, 2425.6**, 2337.3-2448.8***, 2466.5***, 2539.3-2560.1****
Pivot: 2389.6-2394.5
Support: 2378.2-2384.7***, 2365.8-2369**, 2360.2-2362.6***, 2348.1-2351***, 2327.1-2343.1****
Silver (May)
Resistance: 28.56-28.69**, 28.88-28.90**, 29.05-29.22***, 29.88-30.35***
Pivot: 28.44
Support: 28.18-28.24**, 27.93**, 27.64-27.76***, 27.34-27.51***, 26.93-26.97***, 26.40-26.48***
Micro Bitcoin (April)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 63,560, down 3,610
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 64,660-64,890***, 67,170-67,595***, 68,590*, 70,410-70,800**, 71,795-71,815**, 72,110-72,530**, 73,410-73,600***
Pivot: 63,700
Support: 62,535**, 61,632-61,680***, 60,830**, 57,410-58.250***
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