Market Overview – Morning Express
Market Overview – Morning Express
- * UBS to buy Credit Suisse for $3 billion, brokered by Swiss authorities who ignored laws requiring a shareholder vote. The move wipes out $17 billion of junior debt known as Additional Teir-1 debt (AT1), although shareholders receive payments, the move rattles institutional investor confidence.
- * Six central banks, including the Federal Reserve, announce a coordinated effort to improve U.S. Dollar liquidity by enhancing the frequency of swap line operations form weekly to daily. A similar coordinated effort was established in March 2020.
- * China’s President Xi landed in Moscow early this morning for a three-day visit with Russia’s President Putin.
- * Gold highest since March 2022 and Crude Oil lowest since November 2021.
- * German PPI data was firmer than expected at 15.8% y/y versus 14.5%, but still disinflationary -0.3% m/m versus -0.5%.
- * ECB President Lagarde speaks this morning, scheduled for 9:00 and 11:00 am CT.
- * The Federal Reserve begins their two-day policy meeting tomorrow, with a decision on Wednesday at 1:00 pm CT.
- * The CME’s FedWatch Tool signals a 25bps hike with a 65.7% probability, with the remaining 34.3% favoring no action.
- * Rates are currently 450/475bps (before Wednesday) and there is a 70.1% probability they are cut by 50bps to 400/425bps by September.
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E-mini S&P (June) / NQ (June)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 3947.00, down 47.50 on Friday and up 49.50 on the week
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 12,644.75, down 70.75 on Friday and up 675.75 on the week
- * Noted on Friday: Although we remain cautiously Bullish in Bias, it is prudent to capitalize on the strength ahead of the weekend.
- * If you have been following us, you know we believe leadership is tech, but the NQ is running into the February 16th selloff and the S&P last Thursday’s selling at the start of the bank scare.
- * NQ chart above shows healthy consolidation and relative outperformance versus ‘safer’ sectors.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 3990.25-3994***, 4009.25-4015**, 4032.75**, 4042***, 4053.25-4057.50**
Pivot: 3947-3955
Support: 3932.50**, 3924.25**, 3901.25-3908.25***, 3879.25-3887**, 3840.75-3852.50***, 3818.25-3822.75****, 3770.50-3781.25**
NQ (June)
Resistance: 12,715**, 12,764**, 12,811-12,850***, 12,926**, 12,980-13,000****, 13,078**
Pivot: 12,619-12,655
Support: 12,569-12,583**, 12,500**, 12,391-12,427***, 12,379-12,391**, 112,308-12,314***, 12,190-12,193***
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Crude Oil (May)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 66.93, down 1.59 on Friday and 9.85 on the week
- * May contract is now front month, April is expiring.
- * Highlighted in the chart above, critical amounts of volume changed hands between 62.50-65.00 dating back to 2018.
- * Cautiously optimistic for some sort of rebound, but risk must be defined.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 67.74-68.27**, 69.38-69.64**, 69.83-70.15**, 71.10-71.69***, 72.92-73.42***
Pivot: 66.66-66.93
Support: 65.65-66.12****, 64.36-64.50**, 62.43***
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Gold (April) / Silver (May)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1973.5, up 50.5 on Friday and 106.3 on the week
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 22.462, up 0.770 on Friday and 1.956 on the week
- * Highlighted in chart above, Gold broke out above March 2022 trend line but faces a difficult test above $2000.
- * Felt like Silver reluctantly traded higher, following Gold, pulled by industrial fears. However, Copper showing construction and is highlighted in chart above.
- * If you have been long Gold and Silver, it is prudent to capitalize on something ahead of this week’s Fed decision.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 2003**, 2028-2043***, 2068.5-2078.8***
Support: 1967.1-1975.2***, 1942.5**, 1936.4-1938***
Silver (May)
Resistance: 22.60-22.81***, 23.05**
Support: 22.26-22.45***, 22.01**, 21.46-21.69***
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