Gold Hit be Fed Policy: Where Next?
Heading into the last FOMC meeting we flagged one of the big risks for gold was, that ‘If the Fed signal that they will be hiking rates more quickly that will send yields surging. That will also send the USD higher and this will be negative for gold’. See full piece here from December 15 last year.
This is exactly what has happened as the Fed signalled three interest rate hikes to come for 2022 and the latest minutes show the balance sheet runoff may happen as soon as rates start to rise. This more bullish twist from the minutes has kept US 10 year yields rising. In fact, the whole curve has moved higher in expectations of faster and higher rate hikes.
At the same time inflation expectations have fallen which has lifted real yields sharply higher.
When real yields lift higher and the USD lifts higher too this is a strong headwind for gold. So, if this mood continues then gold should keep moving lower.