Daily TA & Trade Ideas – 4th Mar 2021

We are watching for a break above 9140 for a buy signal in the $index today. A frustrating week with little opportunity as far as I can see. It is a short term scalpers market. 

AUDUSD trades sideways this week as we bounce to strong resistance at 7830/50 & reverse to first support at 7770/60. We held both levels perfectly so same levels apply for today.

NZDUSD also trading sideways as we hold first resistance at 7280/7300 & the first target of 7220/10. 

USDJPY hit the August high at 106.95/107.05 with very strong resistance at 500 day & 100 week moving average at 107.15/25. 

EURJPY mostly sideways this week but we are in a 9 month bull trend so we remain buyers on weakness. The bounce from good support at 128.10/127.90 beat first resistance at 128.80/90 to top exactly at our next target of 129.45/55

CADJPY also in a bull trend with the Yen trending lower across the board. 

EURUSD no trend, pattern or clear signals to follow. This is one of the most difficult pairs to trade at the moment. Moves are random, erratic & reliable levels are difficult to identify because we have held a range of only 400 pips for 3 months (and a range of 300 pips for 1 month).

Having said that we bottomed exactly at 500 week moving average support at 1.2000/1.1990 on Tuesday & topped exactly at very strong resistance at 1.2090/1.2110 yesterday. Watch these 2 levels again today.

USDCAD has retraced 50% of the strong recovery at the end of last week & then bounced a little yesterday. However it is very difficult to trade this week as hourly ranges are as small as 20 pips & we are holding 50 pip ranges for hours. 

GBPUSD consolidates losses this week, trading mostly sideways in an erratic, unpredictable & quite random moves from hour to hour. We have held a range of just 150 pips over the last 3 days. 

EURGBP holding a 50 pip range this week. 

Gold Spot outlook remains negative as we top exactly at resistance at 1735/40. As I expected, we sold off eventually to retest of 1710/06 & hit the next target of 1702/00, but have seen a bounce from here. 

Gold remains in a bear trend of course but is oversold now. There is no buy signal & we have not hit a strong support level that I can see but a recovery is possible. A sideways trend for a few days looks the most likely scenario. 

Silver Spot held the same range as Tuesday as we topped exactly at strong resistance at 2680/90. We have traded sideways in a 250 tick range for over 4 months with no other pattern or trend to give us a decent signal.

WTI Crude APRIL Future stuck in a sideways trend as we unexpectedly break back above 6120/40.

A break below 5920 is an important sell signal today.

  Dax 30 March retested the February high at 14185 in the sideways trend & then collapsed almost 300 ticks. Unfortunately I cannot see a pattern  or trend to trade (other than sideways).   

Emini S&P March wiped out Monday’s strong gains over the past 2 days. This market has been very volatile for 6 days, up for a day or two then wiping out those gains before a strong recovery.  

Nasdaq March unfortunately never quite made it to our selling opportunity at 13350/450 before we collapsed yesterday. 

We broke support at the February low at 12660 for a sell signal.