Blue Line – Grain Express August 10th, 2021
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| Corn (December) Fundamentals: Yesterday’s export inspections came in at 667,220 metric tons, below the low end of expectations and about half of last week. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed a 2% jump in Good/Excellent conditions, a bigger jump than many were expecting. An 11% improvement in Illinois certainly helped. Thursday’s WASDE report will continue to be the big focus, click here to see the estimates. Technicals: Corn futures were mixed yesterday, staying tethered to the 550 handle, which we have traded for 11 consecutive sessions. The market is lower in the early morning trade on the back of a bearish crop progress report. The 100-day moving average has worked up to 544, with additional support down to 541 ¼. A break and close below this pocket could spur long liquidation ahead of the USDA report. Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 557 ¾-560 ¾***, 569 ¼-573 ½****, 588 ½-591 ¼*** Pivot: 547-552 ¼ Support: 541 ¼-544****, 532 ¼**, 507-514 ¼****, 497 ¼-500 ¼** Soybeans (November) Fundamentals: A flash sale of 104,000 metric tons was reported yesterday morning, to Unknown destinations for the 2021/2022 marketing year. Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 114,253 metric tons, towards the low end of estimates and a few notches below last week. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed Good/Excellent ratings unchanged, within expectations. As with corn, an 11% jump in G/E ratings for Illinois offset declines in other states. Thursday’s WASDE report will continue to be the big focus, click here to see the estimates. Technicals: The market seems to be struggling getting out above the August 3rd breakdown point and the 100-day moving average. A continued failure here would mark lower highs and open the door for lower lows and a drop towards the technically and psychologically significant $13.00 handle. The Bulls need to achieve consecutive closes above or a conviction close above technical resistance to neutralize the technical damage that was done from last Tuesday. Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 1348-1352 ¼***, 1379 ½-1387 ½**** Pivot: 1325 ¾-1333 Support: 1300 ½-1306 ¾***, 1259 ¾-1267** Chicago Wheat (December) Techncials: Chicago wheat futures erased Friday’s gains, and that was about it. The breakout point from August 2nd continues to act as support, we’ve defined that as 723 ½-725. So long as the Bulls can defend this pocket, they have the technical advantage in what could be a Bull-flag. A break and close below that pocket would likely have the new Bulls throwing in the towel, potentially triggering long liquidation. Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 749 ¾-751 ¾***, 770 ½** Support: 723 ½-725***, 694 ¼-700***, 672-676 ½*** |
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