The Big 5 This Week – March 30th, 2024
The Big 5 This Week – March 30th, 2024
SPX
S&P 500 (SPX)
Recent Development
The S&P finished the week +0.38%. It remained range-bound to slightly negative for majority of the week. Last trading day (Thursday) we saw a spike above the previous all time high, but failed and closed slightly negative on the day. What is interesting about the price action is that we’ve seen double-tops in other sectors of the market . Double-Tops in: Nasdaq, XLY, QQQ, DJI, and….S&P? If S&P plans to follow Big Tech then the high could hold, but I wouldn’t count on it. Equities are undoubtedly bullish. The nice thing about double-tops is in the event we touch a 3rd time we likely blow higher & resistance is well defined. For now support lies at 5190. In the event we break below 5100 we can then begin to talk about the potential of a healthy 5-8% correction to 4750-4800 or so.
SPX/GOLD Ratio vs SPX
S&P/Gold Ratio overlaid with SPX in Orange
Recent Development
This chart is showcasing an important bearish development from a weekly perspective. The ratio and the S&P typically track very well together historically speaking. Gold has been on an absolute tear as of late & closed at an all-time high this week. Gold, in my opinion, is not showing much signs of slowing. Gold up +9% on the month vs S&P +3%. This chart is now showing some divergence with this ratio declining the last 5 weeks (-5.9%) without equities budging. Will the correlation Reunite?
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
Recent Development
TLT finished the quarter down roughly -3.6% and it does not feel as if bonds are over their hangover of higher rates. That being said, bonds are starting to show some signs of life. TLT managed to hold above the Feb lows of 92 and is pressing this descending channel resistance. Support is at 92. Resistance is currently 95, but just above there at 95.60 is the 200 Daily EMA. If we can break above channel resistance and close above 95.60 TLT should break higher over the coming weeks.
META
Meta Platforms Inc (META)
Recent Development
Meta has been moderately bid following the break higher in February. It created a false- breakout of this Ascending Channel and is now breaking down. We’ve seen a daily close & hold below channel support which is bearish. With Meta currently up +37.93% on the year (+49% at one point) why not take some profit? Speaking of profit taking – We can start with the CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, who sold over $39 million worth of Meta this week. Let’s also not forget their Chief Legal officer, Jennifer Newstead, who sold an additional 585 shares to add to the 32,000+ shares she has sold this year (she has not bought back). I have my eye out on the 455 level, because if broken it leads directly into a 10% gap. Gaps get filled right? Resistance at 492, 508, and 520. Support 476 & 455.
APPLE
Apple Inc (AAPL)
Recent Development
Apple has not performed well in 2024 being 2nd worst to Tesla as far as performance. Reasons such as disappointing China numbers & The US Justice Department suing Apple for monopolizing the smartphone market appear to be weighing on the stock. The break of the 180 support was significant as it now challenges the Major 38.2 fib once again. As it trades within this Descending Channel – Is 3rd time the charm for a break of 168? What also concerns me is the potential for a Weekly double-top, neckline at 168, that would target us towards the 78.6% fib near 140. Keep an eye out on Apple.
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