The Big 5 This Week – April 14th, 2024
The Big 5 This Week – April 14th, 2024
SPX
S&P 500 (OANDA)
Recent Development
The S&P finished the week down -1.38%. This is following a hotter than expected CPI reading + rising tensions between Iran & Israel. The S&P has broken down from the 2024 ascending channel & back-tested the breakdown (bearish confirmation). We have now been making lower highs and lower lows the entire month of April. If we break 5100 the next stop is likely 5050** massive support. With the Dow already correcting a healthy -5% and the Nasdaq refusing to breakdown from March lows… the risk is for the bulls to regain control shortly. Bull-Bear line is 5050 for me. Bulls regain control back above 5200. If this occurs we can talk about the Blow-Off Top once again!
Mag 7 Composite
Mag 7 Composite (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, META, GOOG, TSLA, AMZN)
Recent Development
This chart is showcasing just how strong the Big Tech sector has been despite all that has been thrown at it. These 7 stocks account for roughly 50% of the Nasdaq 100 and not showing many signs of slowing down. The composite finished the week flat (-0.09%) as other areas of the market struggled and closed lower Friday. Higher Inflation, less FED rate cuts, potential WWIII… who cares? As of this moment big tech does not. Facebook, Amazon, Google, Microsoft are all a small bump away from at All Time Highs again. If you’re looking for a bearish reversal in equities watch a break of the 2450 level here. Until then we are bullish.
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
Recent Development
TLT finished the week down -1.2%. It briefly dropped below support, but it managed to close the week above 89. During it’s decline it tagged the 61.8 fib from 2023 lows to Dec 2023 high’s. I’m optimistically bullish bonds, and I like the idea of getting long here at 90 TLT. US10yr has hit significant Channel Resistance* and the market is finally wrapping it’s head around higher for longer. Bonds have been showing this the entire year. With headlines finally surfacing about minimal cuts (buy rumor sell news) & geopolitical risk heating up… I think it could be time to flip the script and get long bonds. Support 86.38 Resistance at 93.65
DXY
Dollar Index (DXY)
Recent Development
What a massive week for the Dollar! Dollar Index moved up a staggering +1.7% and closed at levels not seen since 2023. Time to get long right? Not so fast. The dollar has covered substantial ground this year +4.5% with a good chunk of that occurring last week, but the dollar is starting to come into resistance. The 78.6 fib from 2023 highs to lows sits roughly where the dollar closed at 106. Just above at 106.68 we have a 161% ext from Feb 2024 high’s to March lows. This would coincide with EUR/USD swiping below the 1.06 level. Will Dollar Bears defend the 2023 highs at 107 and create a Monthly Lower High? Entirely possible. In the event the dollar retraces support sits at 104.70.
APPLE
Apple Inc (AAPL)
Recent Development
Apple finally shows some signs of life! Apple moved up +4.11% this week. Apple has not performed well in 2024 being 2nd worst to Tesla as far as performance which is why I feel this will be short lived. A move near 180 likely gets faded as Investors may feel this is an opportunity to get bailed out. 180 also coincides with the 38.2% fib retracement of the range stretching from DEC 23’ high to recent lows. We all know the 38.2 fib is the continuation fib, and unless Apple can clear 183 I believe it will continue the bear trend.
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