Mish’s Daily: Time for Sweet Talk: Sugar Futures
Written by Michele ‘Mish’ Schneider
The biggest mover so far in one month’s time is sugar futures, up over 16%.
As I am a big follower of weather patterns and have predicted weather could be a huge factor on several crops this year, one major concern for sugar is that the current El Nino weather pattern will curtail global sugar output.
Furthermore, India’s ban on sugar exports will continue to keep global supplies tight.
This comes after India announced a 50% export tax on molasses from sugar refining.
Monsoons in India (Jun-Sep) fell 6% below average, the poorest monsoon rainfall in 5 years.
Additionally, the Thai Sugar Millers Corp on Nov 1 projected that Thailand’s 2023/24 sugar production would fall by -36% y/y to a 17-year low due to a severe drought.
I love to watch sugar as a barometer for food prices (it’s in practically every processed food product) and as a bellwether for social unrest and inflation.
Folks will fight over sugar when there are shortages, and it is not even Valentine’s Day yet. As more and more reports claim inflation is over, the sweet white stuff is worth watching.
CANE, the ETF for sugar has rallied into some resistance at the 200-day moving average.
However, it has handily cleared the January 6-month calendar range high making the trend higher for longer seem obvious.
CANE outperforms SPY and while momentum has been just ok, with further price rises, we could see momentum kick in.
On the March 2024 futures chart, 23.00 is support while 24.00 is resistance.
Most noteworthy is the notion of super cycles.
Sugar is a great example of a 400% move higher since 2020, followed by a near 40% move lower. And currently, a 20% move up since it reached the nadir of 20.00.
Volatility-yes-the inherent nature of a super cycle. Has the next wave begun?
For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools, and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.
Come to the Money Show to hear me and many other great folks speak.
Grow Your Wealth Today and Plant Your Money Tree!
“I grew my money tree and so can you!”- Mish Schneider
Mish in the Media
Business First AM All about retail and the stock pick Abbvie (ABBV) 01-23-24
Schwab Network Mish and Nicole dig deep into trends and stocks to watch for next big moves as we are full January trend mode 01-22-24
Your Daily Five StockchartsTV Mish covers 6 stocks that all about how folks look and feel with very specific levels to watch-set your alert 01-22-24
CMC Markets Are major commodities losing momentum? A look at oil, gold, dollar, the SPY and NatGas 01-17-24
Against All Odds Jason Perz Podcast-The mental game of trading, commodities, futures, equities, technical analysis, macro-we cover it all 01-16-24
StockchartsTV How Calendar Ranges can Predict Market Direction-Mish and Geoff cover how this indicator tells you who and what to believe, when to act and what to trade 01-16-24
CMC Markets Part 3 Gold outlook 2024; the year of the heavy metals? 01-03-24
CMC Markets Part 2 2024 Outlook on the major level to watch in the S&P 500 to assess next big trend. 01-03-24
CMC Markets Part 1 Mish gives you a thorough outlook on which areas to invest in for 2024 in just four and half minutes 01-12-24
CMC Markets Mish continues with the plan for trading on CPI today. Oil, NatGas, Gold and Silver all have very clear levels and momentum 01-11-24
CMC Markets Mish continues with her analysis on gold, oil and gas, only this time adds the dollar/yen currency pair and her outlook on the dollar longer term 01-10-24
January 24 Yahoo Finance
January 25 Live Coaching
January 25 F.A.C.E with Dale Pinkert
January 25 CNBC Asia
February 2 Benzinga Pre Market Show
February 5 Money Show Life with Chuck Jaffe
February 21-23 The Money Show in Las Vegas
Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets
S&P 500 (SPY) 480 now the pivotal zone
Russell 2000 (IWM) 195 pivotal, 190 support to hold
Dow (DIA) 375 support
Nasdaq (QQQ) 408-409 support
Regional banks (KRE) Back over 50 which needs to hold
Semiconductors (SMH) 184 support
Transportation (IYT) 262 now pivotal
Biotechnology (IBB) 135 pivotal
Retail (XRT) Held support at 65 but still needs to get back over 70.00