Mish’s Daily: Parabolic Moves and When to Walk Away
Mish’s Daily: Parabolic Moves and When to Walk Away
Written by Michele ‘Mish’ Schneider
Since December 2022, we have been bullish gold in anticipation of its most recent run.
From the start of 2023, I went on the media telling viewers to buy gold and hold it. I believed that gold would double (it was trading $1500 at the time).
And if gold did not double, I believed it would at least be a hedge against any chaos and run up much higher.
Furthermore, I often wrote how chaos can present in many ways from explosive debt to weather catastrophes to war.
This chart shows the huge amount of buying by global central banks.
In 2022, with interest rates rising and the dollar remaining strong, banks accumulated gold.
In 2023, with growth stocks roaring, the economy hanging tough, rates and inflation peaking, banks accumulated gold.
In 2024, with the Dow and SPY making new all-time highs, central banks accumulated gold.
Why?
Besides banks, Wells Fargo estimates that Costco is selling as much as $200 MILLION in gold bars monthly.
Gold rush?
However, the retail investor is still not fully positioned in gold futures or in GLD, the gold ETF, which makes this chart even more bullish.
In my 2024 Outlook I wrote that “gold and silver will start their last hurrah. We plan to ride the wave, and then exit and move on.”
Let’s not forget that silver too has now joined the party with higher industrial demand and lower inventories.
What I meant by “exit and move on” is that I am making another bold prediction.
Once this rally ends-and that could be this year, or in another year from now, we will take our money off the table and walk away from the precious metals-indefinitely.
After all, at this point, the PMs are not moving a lot higher because of runaway inflation like they did in the late 1970s.
Currently, gold is running because of fear of more chaos.
And silver is running out of fear of not enough supply (and more chaos-poor man’s gold).
The idea of reflation has its part of this of course, but we believe that both gold and silver will continue to go parabolic for now because of these unique set of reasons.
And that once those reasons go away, so will the need for both metals at lofty prices. But let’s not think about that for now.
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Mish in the Media
Business First AM Mish covers the massive consolidation of many sectors and why solar energy is something to look at right now 04-09-24
Stockpick.app Mish teaches you why this most powerful chart pattern will lead you to stay on the right side of the market. 04-08-24
The Final Bar with StockchartsTV Mish covers uranium, solar energy and forex with Dave Keller 04-02-24
Making Money With Charles Payne Mish talks about small and mid-cap stocks and why sticking to companies with strong balance sheets and earnings growth makes for best investments 04-02-24
CNBC Worldwide Exchange Tesla is one aspect of a much larger megatrend in EVs. Mish covers the advantages/disadvantages of the company and the space 04-02-24
Coming Up:
April 17 Schwab Network
April 17 Singapore Radio
Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets, andnew to us-stockpick.app
ETF Summary
S&P 500 (SPY) 520 now resistance
Russell 2000 (IWM) 201 support
Dow (DIA) 385 support 400 resistance
Nasdaq (QQQ) 440 the pivotal area
Regional banks (KRE) 45-50 range
Semiconductors (SMH) 223 pivotal
Transportation (IYT) 68 area support
Biotechnology (IBB) 135 resistance
Retail (XRT) 74.50 pivotal
iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) 76.50 support 77 pivotal
20240410
