Mish’s Daily: Geopolitics, Inflation and High Rates Too Much for Us
Mish’s Daily: Geopolitics, Inflation and High Rates Too Much for Us
Written by Michele ‘Mish’ Schneider
My thought on the Retail ETF XRT as we ended last week-
“For Granny Retail XRT we first want to see her hold the 200-WMA at around 71.00. But until she makes her way back over 74.50 area, we are cautious on equities.”
Even after a decent retail sales number first thing Monday morning, Granny still struggled to stay green.
Perhaps that was the peak of spending.
Plus, if you look carefully, the spending was limited to only a few areas of the economy.
Spending for motor vehicles, furniture, electronics, clothing, and sporting goods all declined.
Gasoline stations surged 2.1% and grocery stores +0.5%.
Health and personal care stores-the whole Vanity trade theory rose.
Nonetheless, with the 200-week moving average looming at around 71.00-has the consumer finally had it?
The weekly chart shows the support at the 200-week moving average or around 71.00.
What happens if that level of support breaks?
The next likely target is around 67.00 or right where the 50-week moving average now sits.
That area also matches the January low.
Interestingly, with the 200-WMA above the 50-WMA, Granny never went out of an accumulation phase into a bullish phase.
In other words, the consumer has been ok, but not nearly as robust to say BULLISH!
At this point, headlines on geopolitics are taking center stage as far as price movements go.
What we hope for is that XRT can hold current levels and we can go back to watching for buys in companies related to our vanity trade:
Drug companies like Novo-Nordisk
Personal skin care companies like AbbVie Makeup companies like ELF
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Mish in the Media
Stockpick.app Partial-sign up for the app and hear the analysis every week 04-15-24
Kitco News with Jeremy Szafron A clear explanation on why gold is up, inflation, Fed’s next moves and where things are going from here 04-13-24
CMC Markets Take a ride with Mish and she goes through commodities, indices and currencies and gives you a short-term game plan using long term bias 04-10-24
CNBC Asia Inflation is Coming Which bodes well for industrial and precious metals.04-10-24
Making Money With Charles Payne Mish talks about small and mid-cap stocks and why sticking to companies with strong balance sheets and earnings growth makes for best investments 04-02-24
CNBC Worldwide Exchange Tesla is one aspect of a much larger megatrend in EVs. Mish covers the advantages/disadvantages of the company and the space 04-02-24
Coming Up:
April 17 Schwab Network
April 17 Singapore Radio
Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets, andnew to us-stockpick.app
ETF Summary
S&P 500 (SPY) 500 next big support
Russell 2000 (IWM) 192 support
Dow (DIA) 372 the January low
Nasdaq (QQQ) 427 support
Regional banks (KRE) 45-50 range
Semiconductors (SMH) 205-206 support
Transportation (IYT) 67 pivotal with 65 bigger support
Biotechnology (IBB) 128 support
Retail (XRT) 67.00 next support
iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) 75.50 the 200 DMA
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