Mish’s Daily: A Word and a Chart About and On Alibaba
Written by Michele ‘Mish’ Schneider
Alibaba.com is one of the world’s largest wholesale marketplaces.
To be honest, I had never gone to their website until today, even though we bought shares in BABA 2 weeks ago.
So, in case you are like me and have not checked them out, they sell a lot of consumer items in bulk.
And they also sell pretty much everything. For instance, if you want a 1000w off grid wind power Free Energy System for your home or business, you can get one and find an online description of the supplier, including their annual revenue.
Plus, if you want them in bulk, you can order 1000 sets at a reduced price.
BABA is controversial a lot and most recently with a lawsuit settlement on monopolistic practices.
However, the impact on their revenues is nominal and in fact, could be a plus as the company’s stock price trades at just 8x net profits.
Anyway, China overall, has had no shortage of bad press.
Yet, before we learned Jack Ma and others bought up to $200 million of BABA stock, the stock looked and still looks appealing to us.
If one is looking to be a contrarian to all the bad press, then BABA is a company with solid fundamentals.
Hence, the charts are in focus.
There are a few technical aspects we like to focus on that stand out in the Daily chart.
- 1. The new 60+ day low followed by a gap higher leaving a potential long term bottom
- 2. That gap up also reversed the price below the January 6-month calendar range
- 3. Although it continues to underperform the benchmark, it is nearly on par.
- 4. Real Motion has a bullish divergence in that momentum is above the 50-DMA while price trades just below its 50-DMA.
- 5. Relative to the China ETFs KWEB and FXI, BABA is doing better
Now looking ahead:
- 1. The 6-month calendar range is support and should hold while the recent lows is the optimal risk point
- 2. The 50-DMA needs to clear and confirm as a phase change to recuperation
- 3. The January 6-month calendar range high at 76.69 is another key area to clear
On these types of trades, risk is extremely important. Finding bottoms is a tricky trade, but when right, can have huge payouts. Finally, BABA reports earnings pre-US market opening on February 7th.
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Mish in the Media
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Stockpick Jillian Glickman and Mish discuss economic outlook and current investment picks plus forecasts on inflation. 01-22-24
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Yahoo Finance Mish makes up a new ETF (not real) called VAIN-but really discusses the basket of stocks that are worth watching 01-24-24
Business First AM Mish talks about Alibaba and how the opinions of China’s demise might be a bit exaggerated 01-23-24
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Schwab Network Mish and Nicole dig deep into trends and stocks to watch for next big moves as we are full January trend mode 01-22-24
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CMC Markets Are major commodities losing momentum? A look at oil, gold, dollar, the SPY and NatGas 01-17-24
Against All Odds Jason Perz Podcast-The mental game of trading, commodities, futures, equities, technical analysis, macro-we cover it all 01-16-24
StockchartsTV How Calendar Ranges can Predict Market Direction-Mish and Geoff cover how this indicator tells you who and what to believe, when to act and what to trade 01-16-24
January 30 Live in the Market Coaching CMC Markets
January 30 Singapore Radio Breakfast Bites
January 30 CNA Asia First
February 2 Benzinga Pre Market Show
February 5 Money Show Life with Chuck Jaffe
February 21-23 The Money Show in Las Vegas
February 29 Yahoo Finance
February 29 Your Daily Five Stockcharts
Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets
S&P 500 (SPY) 480 now the pivotal zone
Russell 2000 (IWM) 195 pivotal, 190 support to hold
Dow (DIA) 375 support
Nasdaq (QQQ) 415 support
Regional banks (KRE) 50 key to hold
Semiconductors (SMH) 184 support
Transportation (IYT) 262 now pivotal
Biotechnology (IBB) 135 pivotal
Retail (XRT) Flirting with 70, which has to clear and hold to stay very bullish