Where Do We Go From Here?
Where Do We Go From Here?
Since November of 2019, my cycle work has led me to believe that we are in a period where we are connected to and repeating a version of what the world experienced in the 1970’s (see pinned tweet). In the many interviews and videos I have done since then, I have presented numerous examples of the similarities of major actors (Biden = Carter & Trump = Nixon), economic circumstances (inflation) and geopolitical events (war) happenning now versus events that took place 50+ years ago. With looming economic stagflation, a new “Nifty 50” (Mag7), civil unrest and global conflicts, there can be little doubt of the cyclical connection with the 1970’s that we are experiencing now. The question we are currently facing is, Where do we go from here?
The period from 1968 to 1971 was one in which we moved from a gold backed dollar system to a purely fiat based system. The culmination of this process was on August 15th, 1971 when President Richard Nixon officially ended the convertibility of US dollars to gold. Also included in his economic package were wage and price freezes, along with surcharges (tariffs) on imports. These policies kicked off a 50 year FIAT/SOVEREIGN DEBT CYCLE and the major INFLATION CYCLE of the 1970’s. It is only fitting that we are now in the end game of the FIAT/SOVEREIGN DEBT CYCLE and that profligate government spending has kicked off another major INFLATION CYCLE. Do you think is it purely happenstance that Trump is floating the idea of eliminating the income tax and replacing it with tariffs on imports? No, cyclical forces drive human behavior, which is why actions and events echo with those in the past. Cycles do not repeat exactly, but they have iterating central themes.
Given this backdrop, what do odd favor this endgame will look like?
- 1. END OF FIAT CYCLE – while many have been calling for the end of the Dollar, it will be the end of fiat currencies more broadly. The Dollar will be the last one to go (it will eventually go as well), and will soar prior to its demise.
- 2. NEW EPOCH – as we start the new 400 year cycle, local, smaller, decentralized power structures will flourish. Not exactly the ideal environment for authoritarian, global elites to execute their schemes successfully. They will fail spectacularly, but not before they cause much pain and suffering.
- 3. HARD ASSETS – commodities and hard assets will be used to back currencies and conduct trade. More value will be placed on tangible assets as opposed to paper assets.
- 4. BITCOIN & CRYPTO – decentralized assets that are beyond the control of centralized governments will fourish in the new epoch. We are moving from CENTRALIZED to DECENTRALIZED control structures. Bet on things that are beneficiaries of the decentralization of power and against things that rely on more centralized control and command.
- 5. RISK ASSETS – Using the analogs from the late 60’s and the 1970’s, we should see large swings, both up and down for some time to come. Timing wise, my work shows us within months of a peak similar to that of December 2nd, 1969. The rallies and selloffs will be dramatic. As the Druck has said, it may be we go nowhere on aggregate for 10+ years.
The end game will not be peaceful and easy. Those in power who benefit the most from the current system will fight to the death to maintain the staus quo. It doesn’t matter, because in the end, the cycles always have their way and the changes they bring always win the day.
20240626
