Macro Tides – “Where are the Jobs?”
The Labor Department released the September jobs report on October 8 and for many it was a dud. Certainly looked that way with just 194,000 new jobs compared to Wall Street estimates of 450,000 – 500,000. Some strategists suggested the number was weak enough to dissuade the FOMC from announcing its Tapering program at the November 3 meeting. What if that view is incorrect and the FOMC does move forward with tapering. If correct it has implications for every financial market.
In the October 11 Weekly Technical Review (WTR) I discussed all the ‘below the surface’ details which you should know. Shoot me an email JimWelshMacro@gmail and I’ll send it to you.
Blake Morrow discussed the jobs report and much more in our weekly video. Check it out.
The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be reported on Wednesday October 13. The last two CPI reports showed a moderation in CPI inflation and many are hoping that inflation eased more in September.
Are there factors that might make that less likely?
I recommended shorting Treasury bonds months ago. Is it time to cover?
Blake asked me what my expectation for the S&P 500 was when we chatted on September 24 when the S&P was 4455. I told Blake that my expectation was that the S&P would drop below the September 20 low of 4306 which it did on October 1.
Will the S&P rally on good earnings reports, or is there something that the market is likely to respond to?
In late May I told Blake that the Dollar was in the process of making an important low. In recent weeks the Dollar has been very resilient.
Will the Dollar be able to jump the resistance at 94.75, or is a pullback coming?
In the September 27 Weekly Technical Review I recommended buying Gold if it dropped below $1730 but held above $1720. On September Gold fell to $1722 before reversing higher and trading up to $1780 on October 8.
Is the short term rally in Gold over?
In the October 11 WTR I discussed what to expect in the next few weeks.
The chart of GDX (Gold Stocks) indentifies and important trend line.
If Gold rallies are Gold Stocks (GDX ETF) ready to take off?
In every Week Technical Review I discuss the important economic reports and all the major financial markets in a way you have never seen.