What Could Cause the FOMC to Hike?
What Could Cause the FOMC to Hike?
Jim Welsh of Macro Tides and Blake Morrow focused on the markets as they are at all-time highs, and Jim provided insights on inflation expectations and their impact on Fed policy decisions, noting that rising inflation expectations rather than actual inflation levels would likely drive rate hikes.
They analyzed oil market dynamics, with Jim expressing skepticism about a potential Iran deal and warning of potential oil shortages and price spikes to $150 per barrel. Jim identified concerning signs in semiconductor stocks, including excessive call buying and momentum indicators showing 5 standard deviations above trend, suggesting a near-term pullback in the market.
They also discussed the dollar’s potential to break out above $101, gold’s technical outlook, and the possibility of crude oil prices spiking to $77 if shortages materialize.
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JWelsh@SmartPortfolios.com
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