Weekly Macro & Sector Reviews – Feb 14th, 2022
Weekly Macro & Sector Reviews
MACRO REVIEW:
https://power-investing.com/weekly-macro-review-20220214/
Chart Highlights
On the World ETF Stage there was not that much happening, Latin America still leading with some movers of the bunch being EWW ACH ARGT EWS EWM. IWM was the 9th best RS mover of the week, but only put it up to a ranking on this particular list. Let’s look at the Intermarket view below basing its idea on the Intermarket Analysis views of John Murphy, but taking that from relative comparatives to an RS Rankings view. Theoretically we will see all the comparative performance through a broad macro lists of representative ETFs. The snapshot below is sorted by weekly gainers showing Commodities continued to dominate. USO remains the RS leader, but SLV GLD took the performance spots for the week. It is also worth noting that IWM was up in the performers for the week, but even with only moved its RS up to a 12, leaving it and QQQ at the bottom which is not usually that equity friendly if it stays that way long.
In the Size and Style rankings list we noted that while Value continues to hold strength over Growth, the large and mega cap names took most of the brunt this week. There are a couple of ways to look at it. First is they are finally coming for the generals, which means we have more to go on the downside, but are likely closer to the end of the down move than the beginning. Or second scenario says as long as that mega cap money gets spread throughout the rest of the equity universe, which the IWM and MDY have hinted at a bit during this bounce, then this is just another variation of rotation along the path. Then we could see a lot of churn in the major indexes for a while if so.
Breadth Bullets
- * NHNL Differntial started week moving 2 of 3 signals back to positive, but need the 30ma to clear for a major signal reset. Still warning for now
- * AdvDec Line moving with Price, maybe a slight bit ahead.
- * %>200sma still low and rejected well below 50 here
- * %>50sma intermediate measure needs to see its way over 50. Rollover here not ideal
- * %>20sma above 50 and holding up with other short term measures.
- * McClellan Summation has crossed its signal line and trying to put distance until end of week clipped its wings.
- * McClellan Oscillator and Breadth Thrust hit end of week and pushed back to neutral.
The relative comparative chart here is not always noteworthy, but it can tell you a little about the direction of overal market participation. A setup like now with a pick up in relative performance versus QQQ and now SPY while the IWM comparative is slowing can hint the tide is turning back to small and midcap names that fill out the universe versus just the big names that can dominate these other indexes.
One of the biggest things to start with here on the equal weight RS rankings is just the actual weekly performance of these sectors. Most are positive for the week versus just few in our Market Weight Sector ETF RS rankings list. With Energy remaining the leader, the big RS mover for the week to the upside was Materials with the big out performance of metals, both Industrial and Precious this week. Tis came even with the strength in the US Dollar
We cover all of this and more in the video at the top of the page. Also look for our Power Sector Review for a closer look under the hood. you can find these and other charts on our Stocktwits and Twitter feed @Power1nvesting and throughout this site.
SECTOR REVIEW:
https://power-investing.com/power-sector-review-20220214/
From a sector perspective it can look better than the general markets depending on where you are focused, but even then there are landminds around many turns. Energy has been the most unscathed, but even in Financials and Consumer Staples we have seen well known names take a big hit on any negatively interpreted news. Growth related sectors and subsectors continue to be the most volatile as you would expect during a sellers market.
Chart Highlights
The equal weight sectors continue to be defensive with Energy and Materials flying to inflation flag high as the run out front. Financials close behind even with the tepid move this week. Materials was led by Precious and Industrial Metals, Chemicals and Basic Materials weren’t impressive. Finally Consumer Staples showed a bit more participation which was needed. The good part is it is helping the sector shape up, the bad part is it might not bode well for the markets as a whole if that defensive play moves back up in RS. It is nice to see Communication Services continuing to climb after bottoming our a few weeks ago. It is notable that most of the sectors are green here versus what we saw on the market weighted ETFs. This in itself shows some broadening of participation this week even while the sellers continue to press.
Short term breadth readings remain mixe; pointing out where we have seen strength this week and which areas continue to struggle. Not all that much exciting outside of Energy and Metals on this view.
Another view that we will look at is the prominent RSI stats we look at on the charts including the Price, Middle MA Band, RSI, 9sma of RSI and CFG. How these align can give us a good idea where the charts are comparatively. The green highlights in the 1st column are all the indexes that closed above the middle MA Band for a simple 1st glance approach to price health. Interesting to see all the leaders, including ones like Hotels Restaurants & Leisure and even Aerospace & Defense
IIn the video I jumped quickly into the subsectors, but the two sorts I looked closer at this week were on raw performance as you see in this table. Metals were big with Oil & Gas Consumable Fuels followed by some of the other subsectors we just mentioned in the RSI Quickview.
Sorting by RS Movers misses som eof the top ranked subsectors, but can also help point you to the next set of potential leaders. A lot of the same names on here as the top performers, but also a group of potential up and comers with lower current RS readings like Real Estate Service, Medical Equipment Devices & Supplies
The video will take you through the top performing equal weight sectors and subsectors on our 4 pillars of relative strength.
As always, I hope this helps!
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