USDCHF Can Be Targeting New Lows, But SNB Is Watching It…

3 weeks ago 85 views 3 min read

Grega Horvat

Analyst

Forex Analytix

USDCHF Can Be Targeting New Lows, But SNB Is Watching It…

USDCHF made some recovery in last few weeks, but so far it’s still moving in three waves up from the lows, suggesting this could be a more complex wave four rally — a counter-trend move still within the ongoing ending diagonal. For now we can see some nice reversal down, after only a.b.c legs from the low, with current leg eyeing the 0.7924 low. If that level is breached, it would indicate a drop towards new lows. So, in the next few days, we should get clarity on whether the bears will remain in control.

It’s also worth watching RSI, which is turning down nicely from the overbought territory similar to past cycles since May, when the pair repeatedly turned lower.

Also keep in mind that USDCHF could also move lower even we have any sudden a risk-off mode, as the Swiss franc tends to act as a safe haven in times of uncertainty. However, if we see a sudden and very strong franc in the weeks ahead, as indicated by Elliott wave pattern, then the Swiss National Bank could step in and take action to prevent it from rising too far, as they already expressed some concern about that in recent statements.

So when/if new low is seen on USDCHF, then be ready for a bullish turn later this year, or early in 2026. Ending diagonals are known as reversal patterns.