The Meb Faber Show: “Roger Ibbotson Made a 50-Year Market Forecast. It Was Surprisingly Accurate. How?”
The Meb Faber Show: “Roger Ibbotson Made a 50-Year Market Forecast. It Was Surprisingly Accurate. How?”
Today’s guest is Roger Ibbotson, a finance professor at Yale for four decades and founder of Ibbotson Associates.
In today’s episode, Roger shares a century of stock and bond data and how one dollar became fifteen thousand in large caps over a hundred years. He explains why most people never capture those returns, and why total returns went unmeasured for decades. To close, Roger makes the case for young investors owning nothing but stocks and forecasts the next twenty five years.
To see links or read the transcript of the episode, visit us at: https://www.themebfabershow.com/episo…
(0:00) Introduction of Roger Ibbotson
(1:34) Overview of “Centuries of Stock and Bond Returns”
(5:15) The challenges of market timing
(10:19) Market cycles, risk, and the role of human capital for young investors
(12:30) Historical bond yields, probability of ruin, and small caps vs. long bonds
(19:13) Investor preferences and historical market forecasts
(23:41) Nominal vs. real returns, inflation, and bond yields
(29:17) Valuation metrics, market anomalies, and long-term outlook
(33:15) Buybacks vs. dividends and private company valuations
(37:12) IPO trends
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