Daily Technical Analysis is provided by Jason Sen of Day Trade Ideas, who has been day trading since the late 1980’s. Jason has been a contributor of Traders Summit since the beginning. He primarily focuses on providing technical analysis of the financial markets, including stock chart patterns, Forex and Metals setups, and other useful technical analysis.
Emini S&P March – It’s make or break for Emini S&P today as we test:
The 1 year 38.2% Fibonacci resistance at 4000
The 5 month 61.8% Fibonacci resistance at 4012.
The 1 year downward sloping trend line at 4020.
In overbought conditions.
Even on the short term charts, taking my Fibonacci levels from the December high, we have a 61.8% resistance at 4008.
Nasdaq March has recovered 50% of the December loss but the 1 week rising wedge should be negative.
We are testing the blue 100 day moving average.
We have a 3 month bear flag in the Emini Nasdaq as we test the red 200 week moving average resistance.
Update daily by 06:00 GMT.
Emini S&P March – As we are in a bear trend there should be a good chance the trend resumes form here – it worked in August, but in December we burst above this this type of resistance before collapsing.
We have beaten the 200 day moving average at 3985 but a weekly close below here tonight would be more negative. Targets for shorts are 3950/40 & 3900/3890 today.
A weekly close above 4030 signals a bullish breakout & I have to take this as a medium term buy signal. A minimum 100 point jump would then be expected.
Nasdaq March break above 11510 can target 11650/700. If we continue higher look for 11900/950.
Holding below 11500 is more negative for today. Minor support at 11400/370. A break below 11320 is a sell signal in to next week.
Emini Dow Jones very close to my next target of 34450/500 yesterday. We are overbought but with no sell signal I cannot suggest a short at this stage. If we do reverse, I think it will be the Emini S&P & Nasdaq that leads the decline. Until we get a sell signal, we can buy at support at 34100/050. Below 34000 however risks a slide to support at 33870/840.
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Jason Sen, Director