Oil Usually has a Weak Bias into Year-End
US crude oil tends to see a weaker seasonal pattern as we head into year-end. This is one pattern that is worth being aware of because if supply and demand issues and OPEC+ negotiations fall in line with the seasonals then it can result in some sharp falls. Here is a quick look at the seasonal pattern.
Over the last 21 years, US oil has fallen 52.28% of the time between September 06 and December 31 with an average fall of -7.83%. The largest gain was in 2007 with a 29.69% gain. The largest loss was in 2008 where Oil registered a huge -58.78% loss.
Major Trade Risks: Any OPEC+ policy has the potential to significantly move markets, so investors need to be aware of not only OPEC+’s policy stance but also the latest COVID-19 news and how that impacts supply.
Giles Coghlan
20210906
