Mish’s Daily: Vietnam and the U.S. Widening Trade Deficit
Mish’s Daily: Vietnam and the U.S. Widening Trade Deficit
Written by Michele ‘Mish’ Schneider
The U.S. trade deficit widened to a 6-month high and by the most in 8 years.
That means that we imported way more goods while our exports declined.
Now, we don’t like to use one economic stat as the end all be all, but this does indeed strengthen our stagflation outlook.
The Dollar’s recent strength is a factor as well.
Looking ahead, the west coast port labor potential strike, could hurt both imports and exports in the coming months.
Meanwhile, the chart shows us another interesting trend.
One that we have dubbed as the “sleeper trade” for 2023 and beyond.
Since we in the U.S. have rising imports, these charts illustrate where we (and other countries) are going for cheap labor and goods.
And it is not just to China. Note the declining dependence on China and the rising dependence on Vietnam for imports.
This is a weekly chart using the ETF VNM for Vietnam.
About the ETF:
VNM extends beyond firms domiciled in Vietnam to include non-local companies generating at least 50% of revenues in Vietnam. In doing so, VNM adds exposure to different sectors via companies in other regions.
It’s a broad take on the Vietnamese market for those seeking a pure-play fund.
Finance is the top sector in the ETF basket at 51.95% followed by Consumer Non-Durables at 16.62%.
The blue line is the 23-week moving average. Should that clear and confirm by the end of this week, that is a phase change to Recuperation.
The last time VNM traded at these levels was the week of January 23rd when the high was 13.17.
Should the price hold the phase change and take out the 2023 highs, we will consider that a more bullish sign.
Our Real Motion Indictor tells us that momentum has also cleared its 50-week moving average. Price and momentum are moving in tandem.
Nothing pleases us more than when fundamentals and technicals line up.
For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools, and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.
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Mish in the Media
CMC Markets Dollar, Yen, Oil, Sugar Futures 06-07-23
Business First AM Market Analysis and GME 06-06-23
ICW Rajeev Suri-Entire Interview with Charts 06-07-23
ICW Rajeev Suri Fed, Inflation and Buybacks 06-06-23
One-on-One with TG Watkins Stockcharts Part 1 06-05-23
Yahoo Finance Market Wrap up 06-02-23
CMC Markets Update on Futures Indices/Currencies 06-01-23
ICW Rajeev Suri Is Market Moving Risk On 05-31-23
Singapore Breakfast with Ryan Huang 05-31-23
CMC Markets-Trading Futures 05-31-23
ICW Rajeev Suri Stagflation 05-31-23
BNN Bloomberg Article Using AI to Invest 05-30-23
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ETF Summary
S&P 500 (SPY) August 2022 high 431.73-and of course 420 now key
Russell 2000 (IWM) 180-now must hold while still miles from its 23-month MA 193
Dow (DIA) 23-month MA 337 pivotal and closed right there
Nasdaq (QQQ) Big correction as Canada hikes rates-also somewhat saturated index. 350 pivotal with the close below
Regional banks (KRE) 45.50 significant resistance
Semiconductors (SMH) 142.50 the 10-DMA if breaks still looking at 138-140
Transportation (IYT) 233.50 is significant resistance
Biotechnology (IBB) 121-135 range
Retail (XRT) 60 now support and 63 resistance
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