Mish’s Daily: Uranium Peaked in 2011: What’s Next?
Mish’s Daily: Uranium Peaked in 2011: What’s Next?
Written by Michele ‘Mish’ Schneider
- 1. Anticipated Nuclear Renaissance (Pre-Fukushima)
- * Prior to March 2011, there was strong global optimism about a “nuclear renaissance” with dozens of new reactors planned, especially in China, India, and Russia.
- * Rising demand projections created speculative pressure on uranium prices.
- 2. Supply Constraints and Delays
- * Key mines faced production setbacks, especially Cameco’s Cigar Lake mine in Canada (flooded in 2006), tightening supply.
- * Long project lead times and high capital costs discouraged quick supply increases.
- 3. Reduced Secondary Supply
- * The Megatons to Megawatts Program (1993–2013), which down blended Russian nuclear warheads to fuel, was winding down, reducing secondary uranium availability.
- 4. Speculative and Hedge Fund Activity
- * Commodities, including uranium, became a target for hedge funds and institutional investors betting on rising prices due to tight fundamentals.
- * Thin trading volumes in uranium spot markets amplified price moves.
🚨 Then what happened?
- * The Fukushima nuclear disaster (March 11, 2011) in Japan caused a sharp reversal in sentiment.
- – Japan shut down its reactors, and Germany announced a nuclear phase-out.
- – Global nuclear expansion plans stalled, leading to crashing demand expectations.
- * Uranium prices began a prolonged collapse, falling below $30 in the years that followed.
As you can see in the monthly chart, URA remained dormant until 2021, when it broke from a 7-year base over the 80 month moving average (green).
Somce then, URA jas held around $20 but could not get sustaining legs above the 23 month moving average (blue) until recently.
However, while the upside of pre Fukushima is there, URA cannot fail this moving average as this is good representation of an expansion in a 2-year cycle that must continue.
The descent in 2011 was dramatic. The dormancy since then was 10-years long.
Now, the optimism must carry URA higher or we can look at this as a great idea, that can take another decade to materialize.
Has URA bottomed? Most likely. Can it soar from here? If you’re tracking uranium today, the current rally is being driven more by SMR (small modular reactor) political optimism, underinvestment in mining, and geopolitics (e.g., Russian fuel bans).
Educational purposes only, not official trading advice.
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(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)
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Russell 2000 (IWM) 200 support to hold
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Nasdaq (QQQ) 528 resistance
Regional banks (KRE) 55 support to hold
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