Mish’s Daily: Natural Gas-What’s Taking So Long?
Mish’s Daily: Natural Gas-What’s Taking So Long?
Written by Michele ‘Mish’ Schneider
A big story last week was that AI is fueled by natural gas, which should increase demand.
That story did little for the futures price.
Then this week other stories came out that:
- 1. Prices were supported by higher feed gas flows to Freeport LNG and lower U.S. production.
- 2. Chesapeake Energy’s decision is to maintain output curtailments.
- 3. NatGasWeather.com says that a hot forecast for Texas could also lift demand for power generation.
We also just learned that the weekly build in inventories came in roughly in line with expectations which was received with a rise in prices as of today.
Year-to-date, natural gas prices are down nearly 40%.
Analysts believe that solar will replace the need for natgas, but can the US power grid sustain the growth in demand?
After all, good or smart business generally goes the way of the cheapest fix, and not necessarily the one that is better ecologically.
Be that as it may, it’s the charts that keep us on the ride side.
Let’s have a look.
On the futures chart, June contract, the answer looks simple. Wait for 2 closes over the 50-DMA and the phase change to recuperation will confirm.
The ETF UNG is another option to watch, however, as I have noted many times before, the underlying commodity should drive investment decisions.
In the chart, we see consistency in that UNG has yet to clear the 50-DMA to a better phase.
What I find interesting here is that our real motion indicator has a bullish diversion with price over the 50-DMA. Plus, our leadership indicator at this point shows UNG trading on par with the benchmark.
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Mish in the Media
Real Vision The Daily Briefing Maggie Lake and Mish discuss inflation, stagflation, May seasonal, stock picks and much more 04-30-24
Business First AM A quick market recap and why Mish like Novo-Nordisk 05-01-24
CMC Markets Walk through futures trading in metals, energy, dollar pairs and indices 05-01-24
Stockpick.app Why transportation is a huge red flag if cannot hold these levels 04-30-24
BFM 89.9 Malaysia THE MAGNIFICENT 7 ARE NOW THE FANTASTIC FOUR Mish tells us how much of a divergence are we seeing in terms of performance and why these results still matter in spite of the Fed keeping pat on rates. 04-26-24
The Phoenix Show China Mish talks to The Phoenix Show in China about the upcoming Fed meeting 04-26-24
FOREX ANALYTIC Mish sees opportunities in commodities amid concerns over stagflation 04-25-24
Business First AM Mish covers regional banks, the small caps, value stocks, retail and bitcoin-with levels for you to act upon 04-23-24
Coming Up:
May 3 Benzinga Pre Market Prep
May 3 Financial Sense with Jim Pupluva
Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets, andnew to us-stockpick.app
ETF Summary
S&P 500 (SPY) Still in a caution phase-500 now support 511 the 50-DMA resistance
Russell 2000 (IWM) Still in a caution phase-190 support 200-202 resistance
Dow (DIA) Still in a caution phase 380 support 388 resistance
Nasdaq (QQQ) Still in a caution phase 430 pivotal
Regional banks (KRE) 45-50 range
Semiconductors (SMH) Still in a caution phase 204 Support 220 resistance
Transportation (IYT) 63 support 67 resistance
*Biotechnology (IBB) Unconfirmed from bearish to recuperation phase
Retail (XRT) 71.50 support 75 resistance
iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) 76.50 pivotal
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