Mish’s Daily: Latest on Oil Futures and the USO ETF

7 months ago 323 views 4 min read

Michele “Mish” Schneider

Director of Trading and Education

MarketGauge.com

Mish’s Daily: Latest on Oil Futures and the USO ETF

Written by Michele ‘Mish’ Schneider

Now that the calendar range for July is set, let’s look at oil futures.

First, there is the chart of USO the ETF for the US oil fund for those who prefer to trade the ETFs rather than commodities.

USO Daily chart shows a couple of interesting data points.

1. It has underperformed the benchmark since late June.
2. The momentum (real motion) remains in a bullish divergence to price.
3. While it failed the January 6-month calendar range after the ME conflict, it is now trading right in the middle of the new July 6-month calendar range. (The new red and green horizontal lines).
4. The July calendar range lines up with the 200 daily moving average. Perfect risk.
5. A move over the July calendar range high would be very bullish.

Before we buy or sell any commodity ETF we always look at the underlying future.

This is the September contract of WTI crude oil futures.

1. The July high is $68
2. It is above the 50-DMA while the 200-DMA comes in around 66.20
3. $64 huge support-the risk
4. With the recent 15% correction from the peak ME crisis, the longer it holds $64 the better it looks
5. The safest trade is the one that clears $68

Educational purposes only, not official trading advice.

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