Mish’s Daily: Happy New Year or Is It for The Economic Modern Family?
Mish’s Daily: Happy New Year or Is It for The Economic Modern Family?
Written by Michele ‘Mish’ Schneider
I hope everyone had a wonderful holiday and has a very happy and successful New Year.
I spent time with my actual family and of course, watched my Economic Modern Family carefully.
If you have not seen my Outlook 2025, you should. I wrote it for myself, our clients and for you, my readers.
It will be extremely useful as I do what I do-combine fundamental, logical analysis, along with tips to execute trades with expert timing using technical analysis.
As far as the Family, we love the January Trend Trade, but we can also speculate based on the weekly charts what the Family is saying day one of 2025.
Granny Retail XRT remains a key player. While we would like to see XRT regain leadership, for now, the main thing is holding around $78, or where the massive consolidation breakout began last year.
Granddad Russell 2000 IWM, has a few key points of support to hold. $217 is one. The 50-week moving average at around $212.45 is another. If IWM has any legs at all, it must also clear back above $227.
Big Brother Biotechnology IBB starts the year with issues. However, if IBB can manage to hang on to $130 good. Over $135 even better.
Swinging over to Prodigal Son Regional Banks KRE, the 200-week moving average (green line) at $58 if good, should offer support. Right now, a move back over $65 seems like a Herculean task.
Transportation IYT literally dances on the 50-WMA after making new all-time highs back in November. For you Dow theorists, IYT must do something better than this. Can it? Over $70 would be way better, but under $66, no fun.
Sister Semiconductors SMH has been the savior for years. Can she do it again? SMH has not traded under the 50-WMA since January 2023 when the fun began. And the January trend trade showed us the way! Now, we wait for her to do her magic and lead OR, a $35-40 drop from current levels is quite likely.
The weekly chart of BITO the ETF looks so much better than everyone else. While bitcoin fell to around $90,000, that it held and now trades back above $97,000 most likely means it will retest $108,000 and go higher still. BITO must hold the converging 50 and 200-WMAs.
To see more click on Outlook 2025.
We will continue to monitor The Modern Family of course. The calendar range will be huge!
In the meantime, we have risk parameters for our existing positions and are taking a patient stance on executing new trades.
Educational purposes only, not official trading advice.
For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools, and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.
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Outlook 2025, the PDF This will set you up on the right side of the market along with many picks
BNN Bloomberg Best Strategies to Invest January Trend Trade 01-02-25
BFM The Business Station The importance of the January trend trade and how to use it 01-01-25
Fox Business Mish sits with Ash Webster to discuss headwinds and how to navigate them 12-26-24
Asia first The Fed and What to Watch For 2025 12-26-24
Yahoo Finance Year of the Snake and More 12-26-24
PreMarketPrep with Dennis Dick What is the Mish XRT Indicator 12-24-24
Traders Summit 2025 Outlook for Year of the Snake December 24, 2024
Coming Up:
January 6, 13, 27 Podcast
January 15 BNN Bloomberg
January 15 Maggie Lake
Weekly: Business First AM
ETF Summary
(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)
S&P 500 (SPY) 580 support-caution phase
Russell 2000 (IWM) 213-217 support-caution phase
Dow (DIA) Looks weakest. 420 pivotal support-caution phase
Nasdaq (QQQ) 504 support and now in an unconfirmed caution phase
Regional banks (KRE) 65 resistance 58 support
Semiconductors (SMH) 235-240 range to watch
Transportation (IYT) 66 key support
Biotechnology (IBB) 130 major support
Retail (XRT) 78 support
iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) While this had a good drop, it is holding above key support at 78
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