Mish’s Daily: Daily Briefing Notes for the Market

1 year ago 357 views 6 min read

Michele “Mish” Schneider

Director of Trading and Education

MarketGauge.com

Mish’s Daily: Daily Briefing Notes for the Market

Written by Michele ‘Mish’ Schneider

I am back from 2 weeks of whirlwind travel and presenting at both the Money Show in Las Vegas and Charting Forward at Stockcharts.com

I thank Geoff Bysshe, the President of MarketGauge.com for filling in for me.

After the market has absorbed bank crises, debt ceiling talk, the Fed Funds rate at 5.25%, earnings misses and beats, calls for recession and hopes for lower inflation, we have plenty more to say.

Since I will be joining Maggie Lake and the folks at Real Vision at 4 PM ET (you can find it on their channel on YouTube), I thought sharing my notes in preparation for that would be a good comeback for my Daily writing.

The S&P 500 charts show 2 different timeframes.

The first is the daily chart.

SPY is in a daily bullish phase. The price is not too far from the early May peak, which sits just under the 23-month moving average or 2-year business cycle.

The Real Motion indicator illustrates no real divergence3e as that too is in a bullish phase.

On the weekly charts, SPY is also in a bullish phase above both the 50 and 200-WMAs. Momentum here, has a divergence.

SPY momentum sits on the 50-WMA which sits beneath the 200-WMA or in a recuperation phase.

What do these charts suggest?

Based on this “Would you sell in May, and go away?”

Market resiliency with just a touch of pessimism.

Some areas to watch:

KRE or Regional Banks-if the price holds 37.05 then it is possible the worst is over. If that level fails, expect more bad news.

The Economic Modern Family-regardless of what SPY is doing, the Russell 2000 (IWM) needs to hang in there and clear 180. Granny Retail XRT, must hold 60.

Transportation IYT is a bright spot and if clears 230-the case for more upside is clearer.

Inflation-basic materials lag, but industrial metals particularly copper ($3.93), played catch up.

Precious metals (gold $2028 Silver $25.70) continue to outperform. With CPI PPI this week, we will know a bit more although CORE PCE is still high.

Oil-China consumption rose. Brent Crude Oil rallied to $77.00 per barrel. Above $80 shorts will cover and energy will rebound higher.

102 stocks made new 52-week highs today. Shopify, O’Reilly, Shake Shack, Builders FirstSource are a few.

111 stocks made a new 52-week low. Match.com and Tyson Foods stood out.

Tech stocks-Apple looks amazing as does Microsoft, Nvidia. SMH the ETF is over a key monthly MA and could expand.

Dollar-as long as it holds 100.70 neutral.

Some picks:

Live Streaming Sports and Music

Country ETF Vietnam

Biotech stocks

Copper

Our discretionary trading strategy is now based on finding instruments using our Complete Trader Scans that fits one of these setups:

1. Buying instruments close to but holding the longer-term MA,
2. Shorting instruments that have failed the shorter-term MA
3. Buying momentum on instruments that are clearing the shorter-term MA.
4. Keeping all trading light until the SPY clears the shorter-term MA. And when/if SPY does, we will buy but also watch to see if small caps (IWM) can get close to its MA at 200.

My prediction-SPY QQQs DIA continue to rally-until IWM cannot clear $200-then everything sells off again.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools, and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

You don’t want to miss Mish’s 2023 Market Outlook E-available now