Mish’s Daily: ARK Innovation ETF: A Timely Barometer?
Mish’s Daily: ARK Innovation ETF: A Timely Barometer?
Written by Michele ‘Mish’ Schneider
I am a huge fan of Cathie Wood. I am also an ardent critic.
Why?
She does not use any type of risk management.
She has vision for sure, but just looking at the peak to trough and current levels:
- 1. ARKK peaked in 2021 at $160.
- 2. The trough was in October 2023 at $33.76.
- 3. Since then, the stock basically traded within a trading range from $40 to about $65.
- 4. This year, ARKK cleared the trading range, posting a recent high price at $92.65.
From peak to trough, Cathie sat through losses of over 70%.
Currently, the loss from the peak is still about 40%.
Why are she and her fund a good barometer?
Because the ETF holds Mag 7 stocks and social disruptors.
Here are the top holdings.
Up until today, ARKK looked like it could head to $100 per share.
Instead, Palantir sold off after solid earnings. Shopify did as well.
Robinhood reports after this Daily is written.
I love Crisper, but do not own the stock because it has yet to clear a key monthly moving average.
The bigger point is ARKK lives for fundamentals and cares little for technical analysis.
Over the long term, we love the stocks in her fund.
We own some (AMD TEM PLTR COIN) and have made profits along the way.
Some we do not own but are watching.
We use market timing and risk management regardless of how well we expect a company to perform in the future.
So why is the ARKK fund a great barometer on whether we are beginning a bigger meltdown or just a normal correction?
Look where the price is on the Daily chart.
Right above the 50-DMA (Daily moving average).
Remember, in recent posts, I talk a lot about the 50-DMA.
Granny Retail XRT has traded below for 19 days.
Regional Banks KRE have for even longer.
Transportation IYT flirts with its 50-DMA.
Since ARKK holds so many growth stocks, that 50-DMA is huge.
What has held up the market?
AI/Growth/Mag 7.
Should ARKK convincingly break the 50-DMA for 2 consecutive days, get ready for a much bigger correction all around.
Of course, continue to watch our Transportation sector IYT. Furthermore, should ARKK hold the 50-DMA and pop from here, we would expect the market to regain footing.
Educational purposes only, not official trading advice.
Limited offer.
Real-Time Trading with Mish
Hi,
For some time now, I’ve been sharing my knowledge and mentoring investors on Slice: a platform built for real connections between mentors and investors. On Slice, you can:
- * Connect with me 1:1
- * Join group chats with other investors
- * Participate in live sessions from time to time
To make it easy for you to join, I’m sharing an exclusive offer:
Your first month is only $1 with this promo code: “Mish1”
Join Slice Today → https://bit.ly/Slice_Mish I’d love to connect with you directly and continue growing together as investors.
Warm regards,
Mish,
For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools, and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.
Get your copy of “Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth”
Grow Your Wealth Today and Plant Your Money Tree!
“I grew my money tree and so can you!”- Mish Schneider
Mish in the Media-Want to see more? All clips here
CNBC Squawk Box 11-03-25 Is AI Capex Sustainable?
Pre-Market Prep 10-31-25 Warnings in the Market
*AAII FULL WEBINAR-A Gift How to Harvest the Best Investments
Business First AM 10-31-25 Tricks and Treats And one pick
NYSE TV 10-22-25 Earnings Bonds and Metals
Coming Up:
November 11 Crypto Spaces
November 12 Maggie Lake
November 13 Real Vision
November 19 CNA Asia
December 1-3 The Sarasota Money Show
https://sarasotamms.moneyshow.com/speaker/michele-schneider/
ETF Summary
(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)
S&P 500 (SPY) 677 now resistance and 664 support
Russell 2000 (IWM) Under the 50-DMA and now an unconfirmed caution phase
Dow (DIA) 463 key support
Nasdaq (QQQ) Possible move down to 600 support
Regional banks (KRE) Now under the 200-DMA
Semiconductors (SMH) 350 support
Transportation (IYT) So key as this dances around the 50-DMA
Biotechnology (IBB) 154 support
Retail (XRT) After 19 days under the 50-DMA, next support is the 200-DMA at 78.00
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 100,000 pivotal with 85k next support and need to see this climb back over 105k
20251105
