Market Overview – Morning Express
– Do not miss our Top Things to Watch this Week, out every Sunday
– Commodities are reversing sharply from overnight highs; exactly why you DO NOT chase these types of moves and stick to a gameplan.
– U.S. puts Russia Oil sanctions on the table, created opening spike to $130.50 in April WTI and $137.00 in May Brent. Highest since July 2008.
– Iran Nuclear Deal hits Russian hurdle, stokes higher prices.
– Chicago May Wheat locked limit higher for 6th straight session. Chicago July is off limit and traded on Friday. Kansas City and Minneapolis also trading.
– There is a self-sanctioning refusal to buy Russian Oil. Being offered at a deep discount.
– Push and pull across Treasury space. U.S. 10-year Note, and 30-year Bond were positive early but turned negative through European hours. Inflation would pressure lower (yields higher), whereas immediate fear should supersede in the near-term. Lower tells use less immediate fear.
– We have been saying for over a week, when commodities come off, look for this to support equity markets. Inflation narrative a key factor.
– China Trade Balance last night: Exports topped expectations, but Imports missed. Surplus rose more than expected. An overall positive due to Exports.
– Quiet economic calendar to kickoff the week. Fed entered quiet period. CPI due Thursday.
E-mini S&P (March) / NQ (March)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4327.25, down 32.00 on Friday and 52.75 on the week
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 14,030.50, down 190.75 on Friday and 340.75 on the week
– U.S. equity benchmarks barreled lower on the open, working through onset of U.S. hours to pare losses as Crude Oil and other commodities come off sharply.
– Increasing our Bullish Bias slightly, per the below.
– S&P must clear resistance aligning with Friday’s settlement and the 50% retracement between last week’s high and the overnight low at 4328.25; a failure to clear and hold above will leave market vulnerable.
– Beautiful inverse head and shoulders across S&P, NQ, and Dow. January 24th left shoulder, February 24th head, and today’s session right shoulder.
– NQ would turn extremely bullish upon a close above … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
Crude Oil (April)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 115.68, up 8.01 on Friday and 24.09 on the week
– Crude opened the session out above our 118.65-120.50 level and has now surrendered it.
– Many have chased this move higher with greed and free money in their minds. If you do not capitalize on the moves, the volatility will be vicious and force you to manage risk at the worst possible moments.
– We remain Neutral and see no clear cut near-term opportunity
– Will there be formal sanctions on Russian Oil?
– Will there be progress on Iran Nuclear Deal
– First layer of support aligns with Friday’s settlement and second is just below, previous consolidation ceiling.
– A break of those first two supports opens the door to our only major three-star support at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
Gold (April) / Silver (May)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1966.6, up 30.7 on Friday and 79.0 on the week
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 25.789, up 0.577 on Friday and 1.1772 on the week
– Do not get caught in the mania. Gold and Silver are trading very well on the geopolitical fears, but geopolitical events do not create long-term breakouts; it is the aftermath of such.
– Goldilocks jobs report on Friday will be seen as supportive for Gold and Silver, but CPI Thursday.
– Silver surrendering the big 25.55-25.88 level; failure to close above here again is negative.
– Gold must hold major three-star support at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
https://www.bluelinefutures.com
20220307