Market Overview – Morning Express
– Nonfarm Payrolls for February are due at 7:30 am CT and 400,000 jobs are expected.
– Average Hourly Earnings are expected +0.5% MoM, slower than January’s +0.7%, and +5.8% YoY, an uptick from January’s 5.7%.
– Unemployment Rate is expected to slip from 3.9% from 4.0%.
– Has a bumpy road to job growth since August begun to turn a corner? A beat today would be two in a row, three is a trend.
– Wage growth, and inflation indicator, is a concern and a hot number could be seen as forcing a more hawkish Federal Reserve.
– Risk-assets roiled last night after a fire broke out at Europe’s largest nuclear power plant in eastern Ukraine. The fire was contained and no damage to reactors. Russia has seized the plant and each side is blaming the other.
– Safe-have demand ahead of the jobs report.
– U.S. Dollar Index has taken out the January 24th high, trading to the highest since May 2020, piercing a strong area of resistance at 98.30-98.35.
– U.S. 10-year Note, and 30-year Bond futures spiked back near highs of the week as news broke.
– U.S. 10-year yield down to 1.70% overnight and back to 1.78% this morning.
– Exuding some shift in rates overnight, odds of NO Fed hike in 12 days rise to 4.1% overnight. The highest in more than a month.
– Wheat futures are limit up for the 5th session in a row, +40% on the week. Russia and Ukraine produce 26% of the world’s Wheat
E-mini S&P (March) / NQ (March)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4359.25, up 22.50
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 14,030.50, down 208.75
– Head-fake breakout early yesterday. The premarket pump forced buying at higher levels and everyone who wanted to buy had within the first 15 minutes. No more buyers. Trapped longs forced waves of selling throughout the session before news broke on the nuclear power plant.
– Our Bullish Bias was neutralized upon break below 4365.75-4371.75
– NQ’s premarket surge yesterday actually achieved our first target of 14,406-14,455
– Overnight weakness traded right into crucial levels of major three-star support detailed below. We have multiple area of thick support hinging on the January reversal as well as the volume last Thursday. Most volume in the NQ since January 24th which was most since September 2020 failure.
– We expect the session to bring two-sided volatility, lean on the levels, especially our major three-star. Our Pivot and point of balance will be crucial, decisive action above or below … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
Crude Oil (April)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 110.60, up 7.19
– Yes, we turned outright Neutral yesterday as prices surged near a massive level at 118.65-120.50.
– Before turning Neutral, we said on Wednesday we would not call a top as the market was moving parabolic. However, yesterday’s reversal and news flow are enough for us to at least go outright Neutral for the first time in many months (we have been calling for $100 Crude since sub $50).
– Signs of exhausted upside were seen last night as Crude did not surge relative to other commodities and levels recently seen.
– First and second key resistance contained the rally well in front of major three-star resistance at 114.83-114.97.
– Per our conversation here yesterday and on Midday Market Minute, we must see a close below … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
Gold (April) / Silver (May)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1922.3, down 21.5
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 25.19, down 0.351
– Nonfarm payroll will have a great impact on U.S. Dollar, Treasuries, and precious metals; will the U.S. Dollar breakout or will Gold breakout? See below two reasons.
– Technical pennant in Gold attempting to resolve to the upside, must hold above 1930 new major three-star support.
– Ceiling at rare major four-star resistance in Silver at 25.55-25.88 has completely contained rally attempts.
– Use our Pivot and point of balance, aligning with our momentum indicators to guide you through the session and post-Nonfarm at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
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