Market Overview – Morning Express
Core PCE due at 7:30 am CT. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator. Expectations are for 4.8% YoY and +0.5% MoM.
– Soft to in line Core PCE would help stave off mounting rate hike expectations. Now an 82.9% probability the Fed hikes for a second time in May and nearly 79.2% probability a third time in June.
– PCE is accompanied by Personal Spending, Income, and Consumption data.
– Apple blowout earnings report, record quarterly revenues and 25% surge in EPS YoY.
– German GDP for Q4 missed expectations
– Chevron missed EPS, beat revenues, -4% premarket
– Caterpillar beat top and bottom but trading lower by 2%.
– Both Apple and Caterpillar resilient against supply chain issues.
– U.S. Dollar is in a breakout, but German 10-year yield nearing 0%. Should encourage flows.
Breaking: Pentagon says “some type of Russian invasion could be imminent”
E-mini S&P (March) / NQ (March)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4317.75, down 23.75
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 13,986.75, down 171.75
– Sharp turn lower after the European open
– Tape rallied after Apple, but really failed to extend gains into the early hours of the morning, opening the door for selling in Europe (no momentum)
– Tails left to the topside each of the last two session, following Monday’s bottom tail. Will market remain rangebound and provide a bottom tail today?
– A long session ahead, stay nimble.
– Price action maintained below major three-star support at 4260.50-4276.50 in the S&P and 13,844-13,900 in the NQ is negative.
– Look for leadership in the NQ after Apple and Microsoft earnings, a move out above… Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
Crude Oil (March)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 86.61, down 0.74
– Geopolitical tensions at the forefront ahead of the weekend. Fear of Russian invasion and ongoing turbulence in the Middle East.
– FOMO upon yesterday’s breakout in Crude, prices came in to squeeze those who chased. Breakout is still alive while holding out above major three-star support (previous resistance) at 85.41-85.55.
– Bulls are in the driver’s seat targeting … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
Gold (April) / Silver (March)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1795, down 37.0
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 22.676, down 1.131
– We are reintroducing a slight Bullish Bias because as price action is now at the bottom of the range and Gold should respond to rising geopolitical fears ahead of the weekend
– But make no mistake, PCE will dictate the tape and a hot inflation read will hurt Gold and continue to mount rate hike expectations. A soft to in line read could bring a relief move.
– Regardless, we view the U.S. Dollar as topping and Gold bottoming early in this rate hike cycle.
– Gold must respond to major three-star support at 1779.3-1783.8, or do opens lower, supports detailed in Technicals below.
– Silver must regain 22.69, or face added selling.
– Gold would become very bullish upon a move above … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
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